Conference Papers

NZAE 2013 Conference Programme and Papers

Abbreviations:
(NZEPP): New Zealand Economic Policy Prize Entry
(SNZ): Statistics New Zealand Prize Entry
(JW-D): Jan Whitwell Prize Entry (Doctoral)
(JW-BM): Jan Whitwell Prize Entry (Bachelors or Masters)
Session Title Paper Title Presenter Co-Authors
WEDNESDAY 3 JULY
Opening by NZAE President
AWH Phillips Lecture

Maurice Obstfeld, University of California, Berkeley
Time: 9.00 – 10.30am Chair: Christie Smith

10.30 – 11.00 MORNING TEA
(1.1) Monetary 1
Wednesday
11.00 – 12.30pm

Chair: Saten Kumar

Optimal monetary policy and the exchange rate
James Graham
(NZEPP)
Christie Smith
International spill-overs of uncertainty shocks: Evidence from a FAVAR Michael Ryan Gunes Kamber, Ozer Karagedikli, Tugrul Vehbi
Optimal, Desirable and Threshold Inflation – Growth Nexus: An Empirical Assessment of a Typical Discretionary Monetary Policy Strategy Zafar Hayat
(JW-D)
(1.2)
Growth 1
Wednesday
11.00 – 12.30pm

Chair: Dean Ford

Tradable and non-tradable GDP Simon Crossan  
Indian Economy – Structural Change and Long-term Outlook – Implications and Opportunities for New Zealand Dhritidyuti Bose
Examining the Usefulness of the Electronic Card Transactions Data as an Indicator for the New Zealand Economy: Some Preliminary Evidence Corey Allan
(JW-BM)
(1.3) Education
Wednesday
11.00 – 12.30pm

Chair: Bob Reed

The effect of social networks on economic outcomes: Evidence from Māori ties to their rohe Isabelle Sin
(SNZ)
Steve Stillman
Earning, learning, or concerning? Andrea Fromm Adam Tipper
Extrinsic versus Intrinsic Motivation: Does major choice make a difference? Mary Hedges Gail Pacheco
Don Webber
(1.4) Pot Luck 1
Wednesday
11.00 – 12.30pm

Chair: Anita King

Do Catches win Matches Seamus Hogan Marcus Downs
The effects of fiscal policy in New Zealand: Evidence from a VAR model with debt constraints Tugrul Vehbi Oscar Parkyn
Forecasting Labour Force Participation Rates by age, gender and highest qualification levels Julian Williams Xintao Zhao, Ram SriRamaratnam
(1.5) Agriculture
Wednesday
11.00 – 12.30pm

Chair: Suzi Kerr

The Application Of Choice Modelling In Evaluating Sustainable Agriculture Policy—A Review Wei Yang
(NZEPP) (JW-D)
Cost Efficiency for Dairy Farming in New Zealand: a stochastic frontier analysis Nan Jiang
Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand Gael Price Gunes Kamber, Chris McDonald
(1.6) Economic Geography
Wednesday
11.00 – 12.30pm

Chair: Geoff Cooper

Geographic concentration and the tradability of service industries in New Zealand
Guanyu Zheng
Influence of Urban Form on Transit Behaviour in the Auckland Region: A Spatial Durbin Analysis Mingyue Sheng
(SNZ) (NZEPP) (JW-D)
Ethnic Capital, and the Location Choices of Immigrants in New Zealand Xingang (Singa) Wang
(SNZ) (JW-D)
Sholeh A. Maani
12.30 – 1.30 LUNCH
(2.1) Finance 1
Wednesday
1.30 – 3.00pm

Chair:Daan Steenkamp

Arbitrage in prediction markets Tram Cao
(JW-D)
The Dynamics of Political Risk Rating and Stock Market Volatility Muhammad Suleman
(JW-D)
Financial Crisis and the Informational Shifts: New Evidence from Sticky Information Phillips Curve Saten Kumar
(2.2) Industrial Organisation Wednesday
1.30 – 3.00pm

Chair: Phuong Ho

Estimating Effective Tax Rates and the User Cost of Capital for New Zealand Firms Norman Gemmell Richard Fabling, Richard Kneller and Lynda Sanderson
Prices, asset values, and regulatory failure in the electricity industry Geoff Bertram
The Upward Pricing Pressure Test for Merger Analysis: An Empirical Examination Lydia Cheung
(JW-D)
(2.3) Labour/Education

Wednesday
1.30 – 3.00pm

Chair: Gail Pacheco

Decomposing differences in employment outcomes: How important is the role of school acheivement? Catherine Ris
(SNZ)
Samuel Gorohouna
The labour market returns from further education for beneficiaries Sarah Crichton
Do investments in vocational education and training contribute to higher productivity performance? Cross-country comparisons within Europe Geoff Mason Mary O’Mahony, Rebecca Riley, Ana Rincon-Aznar
(2.4) Development 1

Wednesday
1.30 – 3.00pm

Chair: Joey Au

What types of countries do people want aid money to go to? Nikki Kergozou
(JW-BM)
Paul Hansen, Stephen Knowles
Replication of: “Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters” (Economics Letters, 2007) Bob Reed Robert Mercer
Risk Sharing through Remittances: Evidence from Developing Countries Faisal Rana
(JW-D)
Dr Faruk Balli
(2.5) Income Distribution Wednesday
1.30 – 3.00pm

Chair:Tim Maloney

The Dynamics of Income and Poverty in New Zealand Kristie Carter
New Zealand Households and the 2008/09 Recession Michael Ryan
(SNZ)
Christopher Ball
The Distribution of Income and the Incidence of Tax and Government Spending across the Lifecycle for Males and Females: Some Evidence from New Zealand Athene Laws
(SNZ) (JW-BM)
Aziz Omar, Norman Gemmell
(2.6) Retirement
Wednesday
1.30 – 3.00pm

Chair: Andrew Coleman

The Distributional Impact of Population Ageing Jesse Eedrah Omar Aziz, Christopher Ball, John Creedy
Retirement Income Policy and National Savings David Law
(SNZ) (NZEPP)
Modelling Retirement Income in New Zealand Christopher Ball
(SNZ) (NZEPP)
JOHN McMILLIAN MEMORIAL LECTURE: Edward Glaeser, Harvard University and Auckland Business School Sir Douglas Myer Visiting Professor
Time: 4.00 – 5.30pm Chair: Dave Mare
5.30 – 6.30 AUCKLAND BUSINESS SCHOOL WELCOME RECEPTION, Amora Hotel
THURSDAY 4 JULY
KEYNOTE 3: John Riley, University of California, Los Angeles

“50 Years of Mechanism Design”
Time: 8.30 – 10.00am. Chair: Norman Gemmell

10.00 – 10.30 MORNING TEA
(3.1) Roundtable Discussion on the Open Banking Resolution
Thursday
10.30-12.00pm

Chair: Seamus Hogan

Participants:
Ian Woolford, RBNZ
David Tripe, Massey University
Matt Nolan, Infometrics
(3.2) Living Standards / Environment
Thursday
10.30-12.00pm

Chair: Rachel Webb

Preferences, trade-offs, and policy making in a complex world: are we in two minds about retirement policy? Joey Au Andrew Coleman, Trudy Sullivan
The Living Standards Framework and Innovation Hans Jurgen Engelbrecht
Scale and Transfers in International Emissions Offset Programs Suzi Kerr Arthur van Benthem
(3.3) Unemployment
Thursday
10.30-12.00pm

Chair: Peter Conway

What Impact Does Temporary Migration Have on the Employment Outcomes of New Zealanders? Keith McLeod David Maré
Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space Mark Holmes Jesús Otero, Theodore Panagiotidis
Collateral Crises and Unemployment Eric Tong
(JW-D)
Prasanna Gai
(3.4) Development 2
Thursday
10.30-12.00pm

Chair: Dorian Owen

Exchange Rate Policy Dissension in East Asia. An Impediment in the Way of Regional Economic Cooperation Maryam Ishaq
(JW-D)
Adim Iqbal
The role of issue linkage in managing non-cooperating Basins: the case of the Mekong Kim Hang Pham Do Ariel Dinar
     
(3.5) Experimental
Thursday
10.30-12.00pm

Chair: Stuart Birks

House money effect and negative reciprocity Katarína Danková
(JW-D)
Dr. Maroš Servátka
A Neuroeconomic investigation of Anhedonia and Major Depression Phillip Hall
(JW-D)
Luke D Smillie, Rebecca A Segrave, Paul B Fitzgerald
Does self-serving generosity affect the reciprocal response? Daniel Woods
(JW-BM)
Maroš Servátka
(3.6) Pot Luck 2
Thursday
10.30-12.00pm

Chair: Christopher Ball

Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) on ChiNext: Good Investment or Not? Qing Wang
(JW-BM)
Jing Chi, Hamish Anderson
Auctioning the Digital Dividend: A Model for Spectrum Auctions Phuong Ho
(NZEPP)
Toby Daglish, Yigit Saglam
Market Thickness, Labour Market Flexibility, and Wage Dynamics Sahin Avcioglu
(JW-D)
Bilgehan Karabay
12.00 -12.45 LUNCH

12.45 – 2.00 NZAE AGM

(4.1) Monetary 2
Thursday
2.00-3.30pm

Chair: Yuong Ha

The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption: Investigating the E
ects of Central Bank Communication in New Zealand
Katy Bergstrom Ozer Karagedikli
The Monetary Transmission Mechanism and Capital Inflows: Empirical Evidence from India Chee Hong Law
Yield curve modeling and monetary policy in zero lower bound environments Leo Krippner
(4.2) Growth 2
Thursday
2.00-3.30pm

Chair: Norman Gemmell

Instrument selection in models of deep determinants of long-run growth and development Dorian Owen
Rural Land Values and Commodity Prices: Research into Contingent Values and Future Land-use Sean Hyland Alex Olssen, Dave Mare
Empirical evidence on growth spillover from China to New Zealand Tugrul Vehbi Denise R. Osborne
(4.3) Health
Thursday
2.00-3.30pm

Chair: Kristie Carter

Obesity and High Birth Weight Rachel Webb
(JW-D)
Demand in New Zealand Hospitals: Expect the Unexpected? Gail Pacheco Nan Jiang
Output and productivity in the education and health industries Adam Tipper
(4.4) Exchange Rates 1

Thursday
2.00-3.30pm

Chair: Mark Holmes

Export performance, invoice currency, and heterogeneous exchange rate pass-through Lynda Sanderson
(SNZ)
Richard Fabling
Exchange rate valuation and its impact on the real economy Enzo Cassino David Oxley
The New Zealand experience of short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility Daan Steenkamp
(NZEPP)
Willy Chetwin, Tim Ng
(4.5) Behavioural
Thursday
2.00-3.30pm

Chair: Seamus Hogan

Should Cartels be Criminalised in New Zealand? Emma Moore
(NZEPP) (JW-BM)
Dr Laura Meriluoto
Transaction Costs and Inertia in Charitable Giving Stephen Knowles Maros Servatka
Price-setting behaviour in New Zealand Miles Parker
(SNZ) (NZEPP) (JW-D)
(4.6) Transport
Thursday
2.00-3.30pm

Chair: Tantri Tantirigama

Recent trends of New Zealand’s international freight transport Joanne Leung Haobo Wang
Long-term trends of visitors by air between New Zealand and its “emerging” markets Haobo Wang John Macilree, Sarah Wheaton
Discussion
3.30 – 4.00 AFTERNOON TEA
KEYNOTE 4: Mardi Dungey, University of Tasmania

Banking, Insurance, the Real Economy and Systemic Risk”
Time: 4.00 – 5.30pm. Chair: Arthur Grimes

6.30 – CONFERENCE DINNER
FRIDAY 5 JULY
KEYNOTE 5: John Quiggin, University of Queensland

“Economics after the Global Financial Crisis”
Time: 9.00 – 10.30am. Chair: Mary Hedges

10.30 – 11.00 MORNING TEA
(5.1) Finance 2
Friday
11.00-12.30pm

Chair: Christie Smith

Housing Markets and the GFC: The Complex Dynamics of a Credit Shock Arthur Grimes
SNZ
Sean Hyland
Policy Rate, Mortgage Rate and Housing Prices: Evidence from New Zealand David Tripe
(NZEPP)
Song Shi, Jyh-Bang Jou
What happens when the Kiwi flies? The sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks Daan Steenkamp
(SNZ)
Michael Ryan, Tugrul Vehbi, Ozer Karagedikli
(5.2) Productivity
Friday
11.00-12.30pm

Chair: Elisabeth Numan-Parsons

New Zealand’s productivity paradox – a transport policy perspective Ian Duncan Joanne Leung
Productivity by the numbers: The New Zealand experience Lisa Meehan Paul Conway
Economy-wide impacts of increases in exports and productivity in New Zealand Anita King
(NZEPP)
James Zuccollo, Chris Schilling and James Messent
(5.3) The NZ labour market before, during and after the GFC
Friday
11.00-12.30pm

Chair: Jason Timmins

The incidence and persistence of cyclical job loss in New Zealand David Maré Richard Fabling
The costs of involuntary job loss: Impacts on workers’ employment and earnings Sylvia Dixon
(SNZ)
David C. Mare
Firm-level Hiring Difficulties: Persistence, Business Cycle and Local Labour Market Influences Richard Fabling David Maré
(5.4) Exchange Rates 2
Friday
11.00-12.30pm

Chair: Tim Ng

New Zealand History of Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes Richard Sullivan
Contemporary exchange rate regimes: floating, fixed and hybrid Willy Chetwin Anella Munro
Capital Flows, Interest Arbitrage and Exchange Rates Anella Munro
(5.5) Trade
Friday
11.00-12.30pm

Chair: David Law

Trade Policy-Making in a Model of Legislative Bargaining Bilgehan Karabay Levent Celik, John McLaren
Horizontal, Vertical and Marginal Intra-Industry International Trade and Determinants: New Zealand and Australia Evidence Sayeeda Bano
Impact of Agricultural Trade Liberalisation on Rice Cultivation and Environment in Bangladesh Dayal Talukder
(NZEPP)
(5.6) Methodology
Friday
11.00-12.30pm

Chair: Nan Jiang

Supply and demand models – the impact of framing Stuart Birks
Tarot card reading and the art of communicating economic ideas Matt Nolan
Using General to Specific Method in Panel Data: An Application to Real Wage and Labour Productivity Relationship Saten Kumar
12.30 – 1.30 LUNCH
1.30 Conference Closing