Papers

Programme and papers for each day

Tuesday, 8 July 2008

Time Programme
14.00 – 18.00 Registration Opens
18.00 LSE Alumni Reception

Wednesday, 9 July 2008

Time Programme
08.30 – 09.00 Official Opening – Hon Dr Michael Cullen, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance, Attorney General and Minister in charge of Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations
09.00 – 10.00 Opening Address – The History of the Phillips Curve: An American Perspective AWH Phillips LectureRobert Gordon. Sponsored by the Fulbright
10.00 – 10.25 Morning Tea
10.30 – 11.30 Thematic Lecture 1 – The Evolution of the Phillips Curve: A Modern Time Series Viewpoint - Clive Granger. Sponsored by the University of Canterbury
11.30 – 13.00 Contributed Papers – Parallel Session 1
The Phillips Curve and Long-Term Unemployment Llaudes, Ricardo
Undominated (and) Perfect Equilibria in Poisson Games Pimienta, Carlos
A New Sufficient Condition for Uniqueness in Continuous Games Hogan, Seamus
Email Pricing Meriluoto, Laura
Competition Schemes and Investment in Network Infrastructure under Uncertainty Mizuno, Keizo
Mixed Methods for Fitting the GEV Distribution Thomson, Peter
Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective Smith, Vanessa
Two Geometric Representations of Confidence Intervals for Ratios of Linear Combinations of Regression Parameters: An Application to the NAIRU Lye, Jenny
Health Shocks and Consumption Smoothing in Rural Households: Does Microcredit have a Role to Play? Maitra, Pushkar
Determinants of Gender Inequality in Child Mortality in India: Does God(s) Matter? Robitaille, Marie-Claire
Medium and Long-term Participation in Microfinance: An Evaluation Using a Large Panel Data Set from Bangladesh Islam, Asadul
Unequal Wages for Equal Utilities Racionero, Maria
Midwifery in New Zealand: Government Policies, Provider Choice, and Health Outcomes Kutinova, Andrea
Impact of Restaurant Smoking Bans on Demand for Smoking and Restaurant Food Kenkel, Don
The Identification of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in New Zealand Fry, Renee
Using Micro-data for the Assessment of Carbon Emissions in the New Zealand Manufacturing Industry Brown-Santirso, Martin
Studying the Short–Run Dynamics of Inflation: Estimating a Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curve for Argentina (1993-2007) Garegnani, Maria Lorena
Transactions Costs And Fisheries Self-governance In New Zealand Townsend, Ralph
Peer Evaluation in Networks Yuan, Kuo-chih
The Asymptomatic Distribution of Nagar’s Bias-Adjusted TSLS Estimator and the Jive Estimator with Many Instruments Under Partial Identification Forchini, Giovanni
13.00 – 14.00 Lunch
14.00 – 15.30 Contributed Papers – Parallel Session 2
Financial Integration and the Construction of Historical Data for the Euro Area Anderson, Heather
Collusion via Resale Zheng, Charles
Forecasting Under Structural Break Uncertainty Tian, Jing
Manipulation in Elections with Uncertain Preferences McLennan, Andrew
A Shriking Theory of Referrals Eldridge, Damien
The Evolution of Time Preference With Aggregate Uncertainty Robson, Arthur
Half Empty, Half Full and Why We Can Agree to Disagree Forever Zimper, Alexander
Can Differences In The Quality of Social Institutions and Social Capital Explain Cross-Country Environmental Performance? Knowles, Stephen
Effectiveness and Cost -Effectiveness of Yellow-Eyed Penguin Restoration Treatments Cullen, Ross
Average Subjective Well-Being and the Wealth of Nations:Some Insights Derived From the World Bank’s Millenium Capital Assessment Engelbrecht, Hans-Juergen
Evaluation of Tourists’ Perceptions of Relationship Marketing and Recreation Benefits in Festival Lee, Chun-Hung
Population Ageing, Labour Market Reform and Economic Growth in China – A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis Peng, Xiujian
An Empirical Evaluation of Poverty Mapping Methodology:A Non-Spatial versus Spatial Approach Olivia, Susan
Efficient Semiparametric Detection of Changes in Trend Goh, Chuan
Hypothesis Testing via Multivariate Kernel Density with an Application to the Information Matrix Test Akram, Muhammad
When Work and Marriage Do Not Pay: Poverty Traps and Marriage Penalties in New Zealand’s Tax-Benefit System Ito, Ryoko
On an Expression of Generalized Information Criterion Lu, Zeng-Hua
Public Pension Reforms and Private Savings Hong, Minki
A Spatial-Econometric Perspective on Regional Labour Market Adjustment and Social Security Benefit Uptake in New Zealand Poot, Jacques
The Dynamics of Welfare Participation Among Women who Experienced Teenage Motherhood Kalb, Guyonne
Learning and Active Control of Stationary Autoregression with Unknown Slope and Persistence Morozov, Sergei
Testing Optimal Monetary Policy in the New Keynesian Model Otto, Glenn
Estimation of Firm Level Energy Efficiency in China’s Energy Sector Hu, Baiding
Infinite Horizon Hydroelectricity Games Robles, Jack
An Empirical Study of Break Point Detection for Seasonal Change in an External Migration Series Zheng, Guan Yu
Variable GST: A Tool for Monetary Policy in New Zealand? Claus, Iris
The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860–2004 Henry, David
Forecasting Under Structural Break Uncertainty Tian, Jing
Stabilization Theory and Policy: 50 Years after the Phillips Curve Turnovsky, Stephen
The Re-Emergence of China: The Valid Concerns and the Opportunities for All Woo, Wing Thye
15.40 – 16.35 Thematic Lecture 2 – Stabilisation Theory and Policy: The Phillips Curve 50 Years on - Stephen Turnovsky
16.35 – 17.00 Afternoon Tea
17.00 – 18.00 Thematic Lecture 3 – The Re-Emergence of China: The Valid Concerns and the Opportunities for All - Wing Thye Woo. Sponsored by CAMA
18.00 – 19.00 Econometric Society Presidential Address – Torsten Persson
19.00 – 20.00 Welcome Reception Sponsored by Westpac

Thursday, 10 July 2008

Time Programme
08.30 – 10.00 Contributed Papers – Parallel Session 3
Democracy and Corruption: An Empirical Analysis in a Cross-Country Framework Saha, Shrabani
A New Test in Parametric Linear Models with Nonparametric Autoregressive Errors Gao, Jiti
A Simple Hybrid Bootstrap Test for Predictive Ability Based on Autoregressions Kuo, Biing-Shen
Steepest Ascent Tariff Reforms Woodland, Alan
Credit Rationing, Macro Volatility, and Industrial Evolution in Developing Countries Bond, Eric
Intellectual Property Provisions in North-South Trade Agreements Saggi, Kamal
Revisiting Kindness and Confusion in Public Goods Experiments: Comment Bayer, Ralph
Credence goods markets: An Experimental Analysis Dulleck, Uwe
Discounting and Consumption over an Uncertain Horizon: Draw-down Plans for Family Trusts Thorp, Susan
Nesting Yield Curve Shifts and Rotations in a Model of Monetary Policy Shocks Claus, Edda
Contagion in Financial Networks Gai, Prasanna
A Macroeconomic Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models Krippner, Leo
GMM Estimation of Short Dynamic Panel Data Models With Error Cross Section Dependence Sarafidis, Vasilis
Efficient Estimation of Non-Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models with Application to Smooth Transition Models Skeels, Christopher
First and Second Order Asymptotics of Covariance Structure Models Prokhorov, Artem
The “Suite” Smell of Success: Complementary Personnel Practices and Firm Performance Fabling, Richard
Export Market Choice For New Zealand Firms Sanderson, Lynda
Calculating Poverty Measures from the Beta Income Distribution Chotikapanich, Duangkamon
Tax Law Asymmetries and Income Shifting: Evidences from Japanese Capital Keiretsu Onji, Kazuki
Tax Evasions, Tax Morale and Institutions Torgler, Benno
Practical Monetary Policies Guender, Alfred
Structural VAR Approach to Malaysian Monetary Policy Framework: Evidence From Pre- and Post-Asian Crisis Periods Raghavan, Mala
Just Good Friends? Relationship Banking and Access to Finance in New Zealand Firms Stevens, Philip
Relationship Banking and Access to Finance Imai, Katsushi
Testing For Uncorrelated Errors In ARMA Models Nankervis, John
Behavioural And Dynamical Scenarios For Contingent Claims Evaluation In Incomplete Markets Pinto, Alberto
Value-at-Risk Evaluations in Malaysian Stock Exchange: Heavy-Tailed and Long-Memory-ARCH Approaches Chin, Wencheong
Can Capital Requirements Counteract Procyclicality in New Zealand Housing Lending Margins? Ng, Tim
10.00 – 10.30 Morning Tea
10.30 – 11.30 Colin Clark Lecture – Stephen Morris
11.40 – 13.10 Contributed Papers – Parallel Session 4
Combining Forecast Densities from VARs with Uncertain Instabilities Vahey, Shaun
Analysing Shock Transmission in a Data-rich Environment: A large BVAR for New Zealand Bloor, Chris
Combining Multivariate Density Forecasts Using Predictive Criteria Gerard, Hugo
On-Campus Housing: Theory vs. Experiment Guillen, Pablo
Performance Incentives and the Dynamics of Voluntary Cooperation Gaechter, Simon
Mispricing in the Japanese Corporate Bond Market McKenzie, Colin
Testing Conditional Asset Pricing Models: An Emerging Market Perspective Iqbal, Javed
Macroeconomic Impacts of Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation: A Theory and Some International Evidence Fukuda, Shin-ichi
The relative size of New Zealand exchange rate and interest rate responses to news Coleman, Andrew
Semiparametric Estimation of Duration Models When the Parameters are Subject to Inequality Constraints and the Error Distribution is Unknown Ranasinghe, Kula
Semiparametric estimation of the tail of the error distribution in multivariate regression Silvapulle, Param
Robust Rank Regression for Limited Dependent Variable Ghosh, Aurobindo
Inferential Methods for Elasticity Estimates Hirschberg, Joe
On Assessing the Specification of Propensity Score Models Lee, Wang-Sheng
An Examination Of Systematic Risk In a Scaled Market Model: a Conceptual Critique Of The CAPM Using a Closed Index System Gold, Martin
Are There Complementarities in Educational Peer Effects? Foster, Gigi
Do Research Assessment Exercises Raise the Returns to Publication Quality? Evidence from the New Zealand Market for Academic Economists Tressler, John
Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of Information when Real Time Data are Available Shields, Kalvinder
The Role of a Tax-Free Threshold: Tax Policy Design and Simulating its Abolition in Australia Creedy, John
A Comparison of a Large Number of Model Selection Criteria Qin, Xiaochuan and Reed, W. Robert
13.10 – 14.10 Lunch
14.10 – 15.40 Contributed Papers – Parallel Session 5
Regional Energy Demand: An Analysis of Substitution Possibilities for China Hengyun MA, Oxley L, Gibson J and Bonngeun K
Elucidating Easter’s Economic Effects Créquer, John
How Do Public Announcements Affect the Frequency of Trading in Stocks? Nowak, Sylwia
The Location of Crime de Fontenay, Catherine
Do Judges Vary in Their Treatment of Race? Abrams, David
Preferred Suppliers and Vertical Integration in Auction Markets Burguet, Roberto
Comparing Bertrand And Cournot Outcomes In The Presence Of Public Firms Ghosh, Arghya
Dynamic Moral Hazard with History-Dependent Reservation Utilities Morfov, Stanimir
Booms and Busts as Exchange Options: Valuing the Decision to Enter and Exit from an Emerging Market Miller, Stephen
Multinational Ownership And Subsidiary Investment Carlin, Wendy
Money, Capital and Unemployment Dutu, Richard
Modelling a Regime-Shifting New Zealand Beveridge Curves Holmes, Mark
Gains from Migration in a New-Keynesian Framework Engler, Philipp
Instability and Nonlinearity in the Euro Area Phillips Curve Stracca, Livio
The Impact of Evolving Labor Practices and Demographics on U.S. Inflation and Unemployment Campbell, Carl
Two Concerns For The Phillips Curve Siklos, Pierre
Using Engel’s Law to Estimate Income Under-Reporting by the Self-Employed Kim, Bonggeun
Using Engel Curves to Estimate the Bias in the Australian CPI Barrett, Garry
Assessing Graduate Employment In The Presence Of Endogeneity And Sample Selection Bias Blacklow, Paul
The Effect of Home Computer Use on Children’s Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills Fiorini, Mario
Credential Changes and Education Earnings Premia in Australia Coelli, Michael
Testing For Price Convergence in Chinese Energy Markets Ma, H
The Economic Impact of Foreign Domestic Workers in Malaysia: Estimates from Induced Labour Market Activity Leong, Tan P and Gibson J
Ready (or not) to get engaged or get married? Co-movement towards a Monetary or Currency Union amongst Pacific Island Countries Lahari, Willie
Keynesian Microeconomics and Institutional Change Kesting, Stefan
Do Returns To Schooling Go Up During Transition? Evidence From Vietnam Doan T and Gibson J and Holmes M
Assessing Design Options for a Nutrient Trading System Using an Integrated Model Kelly Lock, Suzi Kerr, Tim Cox and Kit Rutherford
Modelling the Effects of Socio-Economic Characteristics on Survey Trust: Empirical Evidence from Cameroon Alvin Etan
Finding the invisible hand: an objective model of financial markets McLeod, Doug
The Location of Crime de Fontenay, Catherine
Earnings Mobility in Korea – Pseudo Panel Approach Panel
Water, Water Somewhere: The Value of Water in a Drought-Prone Farming Region Grimes, Arthur
Credible Assignments and Performance Bonuses in the Minimum Effort Coordination Game Ananish Chaudhuri
A Word of Caution on Indices Birks, Stuart
15.50 – 16.50 Thematic Lecture 4 – MicroeconometricsMartin Browning
16.50 – 17.20 Afternoon Tea
17.20 – 18.20 Thematic Lecture 5 – Toward a Theory of Optimal Tax Systems - Joel Slemrod. Sponsored by the Inland Revenue Department
18.20 – 19.20 Thematic Lecture 6 – Risk, Institutions and Growth: Why England and Not China? - Avner Greif
19.30 – 22.30 Symposium Dinner Sponsored by NZIER
Bill Phillips: Man, Money and Machine - Alan Bollard

Friday, 11 July 2008

Time Programme
08.30 – 10.00 Contributed Papers – Parallel Session 6
New Evidence On The Marginal Product Of Capital Swan, Anthony
A Comparison Of Methods For Spatial-Temporal Forecasting With An Application To Real Estate Prices Rambaldi, Alicia
Forecasting Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model for Singapore Chow, Hwee Kwan
Combining Inflation Density Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidenc Kascha, Christian
Advice, Information and the Reputation of CEOs Walton, Nina
The FDI Chain: from Host to Parent: An Empirical Analysis Ragoussis, Alexandros
Innovation and Trade with Heterogeneous Firms Stahler, Frank
Reversing the Lead, or a Series of Unfortunate Events? NYMEX, ICE and Amaranth Kofman, Paul
Are Men More Optimistic? Jacobsen, Ben
The Econometrics of Estimating Unexpected Accruals Christodoulou, Demetris
Background Risk and Household Portfolio Choice: Bayesian Analysis of a Generalized Selection Model Stavrunova, Olena
Climbing the Drug Staircase: An Analysis of Accessibility, Proneness and Previous Cannabis Use on the Initiation of Hard Drug Use Jacobi, Liana
Estimating Nairu in Small Open Economies: Models with Adaptive and Rational Expectations Nemec, Danie
Business Expenditure on Research and Development in New Zealand – Future Potential and Future Industries Williams, Julian
Multi-Product Exporters and Product Switching Behaviour of New Zealand Firms Adalet, Muge
Will a BERD Model Fly? Estimating Aggregate R&D Expenditure Using a Micro Model Fabling, Richard
Migration and Trade in a World of Technological Differences: Theory with an Application to Eastern-Western European Integration Iranzo, Susana
Workforces on the move: An examination of commuting patterns to the cities of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch Goodyear, Rosemary
Network Effects on Domestic Migration Flows Across Germany – A Spatial Autoregressive Perspective with Spatially Structured Origin and Destination Effects and Heteroskedastic Innovations Zimmer, Markus
Relative Income Position, Reference Groups, and Performance: The Impact of Closeness Torgler, Benno
Progress and Challenges in the Measurement of Productivity Fox, Kevin
Posterior Distributions for Welfare Changes in Agricultural Commodity Markets Griffiths, William
A Property Right Theory of Capital Structure Bel, Roland
Inference in Models With Adaptive Learning Chevillon, Guillaume
Wage Gaps in the New Zealand Labour Market Genç, Murat
Posterior Distributions for Welfare Changes in Agricultural Commodity Markets Griffiths, William
Cyclical Earnings Variation and the Composition of Employment Hyslop, Dean
10.00 – 10.30 Morning Tea
10.30 – 11.30 EJ Hannan Lecture – Alan Timmermann
11.40 – 13.10 Contributed Papers – Parallel Session 7
Does Competition Reduce the Risk of Bank Failure? Repullo, Rafael
Modelling International Trade Flows Between Eastern European Countries and OECD Countries Rault, Christophe
Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance Graff, Michael
Asymmetric Trade Integration, Expectations, and Growth Turunen-Red, Arja
Forecasting Euro Area Quarterly Real GDP: Optimal Pooling of Information Mayr, Johannes
Transparency and Communication in Monetary Policy: A Survey of Asian Central Banks Filardo, Andrew
Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Lansing, Kevin
Understanding The Flattening Phillips Curve Robinson, Tim
Evaluating the German (New Keynesian) Phillips Curve Scheufele, Rolf
Coordination Costs: A Drawback for Research Joint Ventures? Poyago-Theotoky, Joanna
Venture Capital Syndication and Termination of Viable Projects Fabrizi, Simona
Wealth and Asset Holdings of Immigrants in Germany Sinning, Mathias
Housing Markets and Migration: Evidence from New Zealand Stillman, Steve
The Effects of a Minimum Wage Increase in a Model with Multiple Unemployment Equilibria Beugnot, Julie
Age Effects on Equilibrium Unemployment Ochsen, Carsten
The Effects of Health and Health Shocks on Hours Worked Mavromaras, Kostas
Is Diversity Bad for Economic Growth? Evidence from State-level Data in the US Ratna, Nazmun
What Makes Growth Sustained? Ostry, Jonathan
Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Quantile Regression Hsu, Chih-Chiang
Collective Rights Organizations and Investment in R&D Schiff, Aaron
Information and Market Price Manipulation in the unique Equilibrium of a Sequential Trade Model – Preliminary and Incomplete Takayama, Shino
Heterogeneous Expectations, Adaptive Learning, and Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Fukac, Martin
The Distributional Impact of Kiwisaver Hector, Chris
National accounts: An optimisation approach for balancing supply and use tables Statistics NZ
Fiscal Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Some Evidence For Latin America Corporalea GM,Ciferrib D & Girardib A
An Efficiency Wage – Imperfect Information Model of the Phillips Curve Carl Campbell III
How the Distribution of Unemployment by Duration Affects the Unemployment Rate Carsten Ochsen
Did U.S. Wages become Stickier between the World Wars? Ranjit Dighe
Long Run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market Caporale GA & Gil-Alana LA
It never rains but it pours: Modelling the persistence of spikes in electricity prices Christensen TM,Hurn AS & Lindsay KA
Statistical Significance and Policy Significance Birks, Stuart
13.10 – 14.10 Lunch
14.10 – 15.40 Contributed Papers – Parallel Session 8
Estimating Short Term Exchange Rate Exposure for New Zealand Firms Randal, John
Longitudinal Evidence on the Impact of Victimisation on Labour Market Outcomes and General Well-Being Velamuri, Malathi
Spurious Regressions in Time Series with Long Memory Wang, Gaowen
Threshold Model of the Exchange Rate Pass through Effect: the Case of Croatia Tica, Josip
Threshold Autoregressive Models For Testing Asymmetric Roots: Extensions And Empirical Evidence From G7 Countries Real Interest Rates Parveen, Tahera
Organizational Design and Environmental Volatility Rantakari, Heikki
Firm Size and Innovation: Evidence from European Panel Data Patacconi, Andrea
Forecasting New Zealand’s Patterns Of Comparative Advantage Lattimore, Ralph
Informational Efficiency, Expectation Heterogeneity and Signaling Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions Iwatsubo, Kentaro
Over the Hedge or Under It? Exporters’? Optimal and Selective Hedging Choices Grimes, Arthur
In Search Of An Optimising Agent With Cyclical Behaviour Stemp, Peter
The Phillips Curve and the Italian Lira, 1861-1998 Trecroci, Carmine
Estimating Open Economy Phillips Curves for the Euro Area with Directly Measured Expectations Paloviita, Maritta
Human Capital, Graduate Migration and Innovation in British Regions McCann, Philip
Does Immigration to Thailand Reduce the Wages of Thai Workers? Bryant, John
Family Formation and the Demand for Private Health Insurance Fiebig, Denzil
Demand for Hospital Care and Private Health Insurance in a Mixed Public-Private System: Evidence from Australia Cheng, Terence
Past, Present, and Prospects for Thailand’s Growth: A Labour Market Perspective Nakornthab, Don
Miles and More: A Quantitative Assessment of the ‘Food Miles’ Movement Ballingall, John
Substitution between Public and Private Consumption in Australian States Wells, Graeme
The Impact of R&D Alliance on the Survival and Profitability of Newly Listed High Tech Firms Valencia, Vicar
The Contribution of Foreign Borrowing to the New Zealand Economy Zhang, Wei
An Analysis of Developments in Skills Shortages that Hampered Innovation using the 2003 and 2005 Australian Innovation Surveys Orzechowska-Fischer, Ewa & Brunker, Donald
15.50 – 16.50 Thematic Lecture 7 – Innovation and TechnologyDavid Audretsch. Sponsored by the Ministry of Economic Development
16.50 – 17.20 Afternoon Tea
17.20 – 18.20 Thematic Lecture 8 – Immigration and the Economic Status of African-American Men - George Borjas. Sponsored by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research
ENDS