2017 Conference Papers

Programme listed below, with links to papers within Title (where available).

(NZEPP): New Zealand Economic Policy Prize Entry
(SNZ): Statistics New Zealand Prize Entry
(SHP): Seamus Hogan Prize Entry
(JW-D): Jan Whitwell Prize Entry (Doctoral)
(JW-BM): Jan Whitwell Prize Entry (Bachelors or Masters)


Wednesday 12 July
Time Keynote 1 Talk Title
9:00 – 10:30am William Strange

Chair: Tim Ng

Tales From the Vertical City: Agglomeration, Productivity, and Real Estate (John McMillan Memorial Lecture)
10:30 – 11:00am   MORNING TEA
11:00 – 12:30pm Session Title Paper Title Presenter/s Co-Author
1.1) CORE and its Applications in New Zealand

Chair: Girol Karacaoglu

CORE and its Applications in New Zealand Girol Karacaoglu  
CORE and its Applications in New Zealand Wendy Carlin Samuel Bowles & Adrian Slack
CORE and its Applications in New Zealand Arthur Grimes  
1.2) Firm influences and characteristics Chair: Richard Fabling Business structures of small commercial maritime operators Helen Huang  
Safety in numbers? Firm size and injury risk Michelle Poland  
Picking up speed: Does ultrafast broadband increase firm productivity? Richard Fabling Arthur Grimes
1.3) Less Developed Countries

Chair: Utkur Djanibekov

African Maize Supply Response To World Price Samuel Olakunle Oladipo Kamil Sertoglu & Kemal Bagzibagli
Agricultural risks and land consolidation process in transition countries: Case of cotton production in Uzbekistan Utkur Djanibekov Robert Finger
Neighborhood Diversity and Child Health in Ethiopia Yonatan Dinku  
1.4) Macroeconomics and Development

Chair: Mark Holmes

Determinants of Intra-Asian Foreign Direct Investment Anh Nguyen  
Vietnam: The Next Asian Tiger? Tom Barker Murat Ungor
How do workers’ remittances respond to lending rates? Mark Holmes Gazi Hassan
1.5) New Zealand economy

Chair: Sam Richardson

Estimating New Zealand’s tradable and non-tradable sectors using Input-Output Tables Peter Bailey Dean Ford
The Treasury’s behavioural microsimulation model Gulnara Huseynli  
If you host it, will they come (and spend)? Sam Richardson  
  1.6) Recent Research by MBIE Staff

Chair: Corey Allan

The marginal welfare cost of personal income taxation in New Zealand Penny Mok John Creedy
Showcasing the New Zealand labour Market dashboard Katie Sadetskaya Amapola Generosa
Man or Machine: The impact of technology change on employees Corey Allan Lynda Sanderson
12:30 – 1:30pm LUNCH
1:30 – 3:00pm 2.1) Migration, Education and Human Development

Chair: Isabelle Sin

Does the empirical evidence on program rates of return support the Heckman Curve? David Rea Tony Burton
The Economic Return of Tertiary Education Nan Jiang Tim Maloney, Gail Pacheco & Basil Sharp
The effect of financial incentives on international migration: Evidence from interest-free student loans Isabelle Sin Ran Abramitzky
2.2) New Zealand economy

Chair: David Maré

Exchange rate puzzle: the case of New Zealand Baiding Hu Yingjie Lin & Paul Dalziel
Measuring vulnerability on a sub-national level: A case study of New Zealand Stephanie Rossouw Roshen Kulwant
Urban productivity estimation with heterogeneous prices and labour David Maré  
2.3) Trade Chair: Rahul Sen The Effect of Non-Tariff Measures on Supply Chains in the Asia-Pacific Region Mike Webb Anna Strutt & John Gibson
Early effects of PTAs involving zero and missing trade flows: Implications for China and India Sadhana Srivastava Rahul Sen & Don Webber
The RCEP Agreement and India’s auto-parts industry: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Rahul Sen  
2.4) Disasters and commodities

Chair: Melissa Welsh

The household response to persistent natural disasters: Evidence from Bangladesh Azreen Karim  
Trends in Global Commodity Prices Amber Watson Adam Richardson
Modelling New Zealand Milk: The Impact of Traceability between the Farm and the Factory Melissa Welsh Sarah Marshall
2.5) New Zealand economy

Chair: Robert Buckle

Employee Flows and Productivity in NZ’s Construction Industry Nathan Chappell Adam Jaffe
The relationship between Pedestrian Connectivity and Economic Productivity in Auckland’s City Centre Mehrnaz Rohani Grant Lawrence
Evolution of Research Capability in New Zealand Universities as Measured by Performance-Based Research Fund Process Robert Buckle John Creedy
2.6) Applied economics in the local government context, by the Auckland Council

Chair: Harshal Chitale

Real life applied economics in local government presented David Norman  
The Serviceability Affordability Model (SAM) David Norman  
Funding Auckland’s future infrastructure growth Harshal Chitale David Norman
3:00 – 4:00pm AFTERNOON TEA and EXTENDED POSTER SESSION (in catering area)
4:00 – 5:30pm 3.1) Monetary policy

Chair: Leo Krippner

Short-term risk premiums and policy rate expectations in the United States Michael Callaghan Leo Krippner
US Monetary Policy, Global Risk Aversion, and New Zealand Funding Conditions Eric Tong  
The effect of conventional and unconventional euro area monetary policy on macroeconomic variables Leo Krippner Arne Halberstadt
3.2) Wages and wellbeing

Chair: Taylor Winter

Wages, Wellbeing and Location: Slaving Away in Sydney or Cruising on the Gold Coast Arthur Grimes Judd Ormsby & Kate Preston
Gender Differences in the Wellbeing and Wage Experiences of Internal Migrants Kate Preston Arthur Grimes
The effect of motherhood on pay Taylor Winter  
3.3) Econometrics

Chair: Bob Reed

Does the “Iron Law” always hold? The impact of measurement error in climate econometrics Kendon Bell  
Meta-Analysis and Publication Bias: How Well Does the FAT-PET-PEESE Procedure Work? Nazila Alinaghi Bob Reed
Meta-analysis with Partial Correlation Coefficients: Can the Results Be Trusted? Bob Reed  
3.4) Mixed bag Chair: Michael Dickson At the Very Edge of a Storm: Impact of a Distant Cyclone on Atoll Islands Tauisi Taupo Ilan Noy
Valuing Resilience: understanding and managing uncertainty in transport infrastructure decisioning Nathan Bittle Monique Cornish, Chris

Money, Richard ReinenHamill & Rasik Makan

Bass Diffusion Models in the Transport Sector: Forecasting Transport Innovations in New Zealand Michael Dickson Bill Kaye-Blake, Tony

Wolken & Matthew Smith

3.5) NZIER topics in economics

Chair: Eilya Torshizian

NZIER, past, present and future Laurence Kubiak  
Impact of decongestion on freight and transport industries and the wider Auckland economy Christina Leung Killian Destremau & Daniel Pambudi
Demographics and the compact city Eilya Torshizian Philip Morrison
3.6) Commerce

Commission Themed Session

Chair: Diego Villalobos

Flipping markets Catherine Corbett  
Pass-through analysis in dynamic markets with differentiated products  Stephen Hudson  
Regulated firms in unregulated markets: friends or foes? Diego Villalobos  
5:30 – 6:30pm WELCOME RECEPTION – Rutherford House (conference venue)  
    Thursday 13 July
Time Keynote 2 Talk Title
9:00 – 10:30am Lisa Cameron

Chair: Tim Maloney

Experiments in Development Economics: Lab Experiments, Natural Experiments and Randomised Controlled Trials.
10:30 – 11:00am   MORNING TEA
11:00 – 12:30pm Session Title Paper Title Presenter/s Co-Author
4.1) Agriculture

Chair: Caroline Saunders

Drought Expectations of Rural Decision Makers and Future Climate Change Pamela Booth Phillip Brown & Patrick Walsh
A Viable and Cost-Effective Weather Index Insurance for Rice in Indonesia Aditya Kusuma Ilan Noy
Consumer attitudes towards for food attributes in developed and emerging countries and their potential impact Caroline Saunders Meike Guenther, John

Saunders, Paul Dalziel & Paul Rutherford

4.2) Wellbeing Chair: Anita King Wellbeing and the New Zealand Government’s Social Investment Approach Simon Wakeman  
Regional inequality in non-economic quality of life: convergence or divergence? Stephanie Rossouw Talita Greyling
Living Standards Analysis Model: The First Prototype Anita King  
4.3) Firm and industry

Chair: Lydia Cheung

Utility Firm Performance with Heterogeneous Quality Preferences and Endogenous Ownership Richard Meade Magnus Soderberg
Hostile Takeover Defences and their Role in Investment Cameron Hobbs Graeme Guthrie
Retrospective Study of P&G-Gillette Merger and Remedy Lydia Cheung  
4.4) Risk management and games

Chair: Oscar (Chi Lei) Lau

Sustainable Financing for Climate and Disaster Resilience in Atoll Islands: Evidence from Tuvalu and Kiribati Tauisi Taupo  
The equitable distribution of a discrete set of resources under the Prouhet-Thue-Morse sequence Sean Kimpton  
Soft Transactions Oscar (Chi Lei) Lau Thomas Jeitschko
4.5) Environment

Chair: Patrick Walsh

Light Petrol Vehicles and CO2 Emissions in New Zealand: Assessing the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policies Sina Ahmadzadeh Mashinchi Basil Sharp & Stephen Poletti
Forecasting the economic impacts of two biofouling invaders on New Zealand green-lipped mussel aquaculture Tarek Soliman Graeme Inglis
Farmers and Environmental Best Management Practices: Differentiating Small Businesses Patrick Walsh Pike Brown
4.6) Transport Themed Session 1

Chair: John Holt

Valuing public transport networks –economic and social benefits of changes in service provision Robyn Hyde Dave Smith
Valuing Public Transport Quality using Passenger Ratings and Willingness to Pay Surveys Neil Douglas  
Industry-based economic development policy via inputoutput tables. John Holt  
12:30 – 2:00pm LUNCH / NZAE AGM
  5.1) Data and valuation

Chair: David Fleming

International Trade Data Quality Index  Karam Shaar  
Investigation on the impact of the 2016 redevelopment on HLFS time series Vinayak Anand-kumar  
Sunlight valuation in a hedonic framework David Fleming Arthur Grimes & Dave Mare
2:00 – 3:30pm 5.2) Policy, output and growth

Chair: Fang Yao

Taxes and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Meta-Analysis Nazila Alinaghi Bob Reed
International Cross-listing and Output Orientation: Evidence from OECD countries Abraham Agyemang Xiaoming Li & Faruk Balli
Macroprudential Policies in a Low Interest-Rate Environment Fang Yao Margarita Rubio
5.3) Gender

Chair: Paul Dalziel

Do men and women with comparable research performance climb the academic ladder the same way? Andrea Menclova Ann Brower
Empirical evidence of the gender pay gap in NZ Gail Pacheco  Bill Cochrane & Chao Li
Gendered Innovation in Economics: Marilyn Waring’s Approach to Social Science Research Paul Dalziel Caroline Saunders
5.4) Tax and fiscal policy

Chair: Patrick Nolan

Horizontal and vertical equity in the New Zealand tax system: 1988-2013 Matthew Nolan  
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in New Zealand: a new narrative dataset Oscar Parkyn Alfred Haug & Tugrul Vehbi
Family and work tax credits in five liberal welfare states Patrick Nolan  
5.5) Centre of Social Data Analytics Themed Session

Chair: Tim Maloney

Impact of Targeted Home Visiting Programs on Child

Mortality and Maltreatment:Quasi-experimental Evaluation Using Administrative Data

Rhema Vaithianathan Tim Maloney, Moira Wilson & Sarah Baird
Impact of School-Based Support on Educational Outcomes of Teen-Mothers:Evidence from New Zealand’s “Teen Parent Units” Tim Maloney Rhema Vaithianathan, Moira Wilson, Anita Staneva & Nan Jiang
5.6) Transport Themed Session 2

Chair: Anthony Byett

The economic impacts of connectivity Anthony Byett Adolf Stroombergen & James Laird
Socio-economic Assessment of the New Zealand ‘SuperGold’ Fare Concession Scheme Ian Wallis  
Incorporating uncertainty in transport investment appraisals Anthony Byett Arthur Grimes & James Laird
3:30 – 4:00pm   AFTERNOON TEA
  Keynote 3 Talk Title
4:00 – 5:30pm Andrew Atkeson

Chair: John McDermott

 A Historical Perspective on the Challenge of Regulating Large Banks (AWH Phillips Memorial Lecture)
6:30 – 7:00pm PRE CONFERENCE DINNER DRINKS – The Boat Shed, Wellington waterfront
7pm Onwards CONFERENCE DINNER – The Boat Shed, Wellington waterfront
Friday 14 July
Time Keynote 4 Talk Title
9:00 – 10:30am John Gibson

Chair: Caroline Saunders

Quantity and Quality Redux
10:30 – 11:00am   MORNING TEA
11:00 – 12:30pm Session Title Paper Title Presenter/s Co-Author
6.1) Gender, youth and ethnicity issues Chair: Gail Pacheco Gender and Education of New Zealand Farmers Benjamin Wiercinski Phillip Brown
Do Lower Minimum Wages for Young Workers Raise their Employment? Evidence from a Danish Discontinuity Peer Ebbesen Skov Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Daniel Reck
Explaining ethnic disparities in bachelor’s qualifications: participation, retention and completion in NZ Gail Pacheco Lisa Meehan & Zoe Pushon
6.2) Balance sheet and housing-related Chair: Andrew Coleman An overview of the new banking sector balance sheet statistics Neil Humphries  
Housing Leverage and Marginal Propensity to Consume Robert Kirkby Jonathan Chiu, Karam Shaar & Fang Yao
Housing, the Great Income Tax experiment, and the intergenerational consequences of the lease Andrew Coleman  
6.3) New Zealand population

Chair: Geoffrey Brooke

A New Zealand Local Population Database John Polkinghorne  
New Zealand: a nation of shopkeepers? Or cockies? Or landlords? Lindsay Beck Bun Ung, Salendra Kumar, Jason Fullen, Peter Roche & Jonathan Millar
The Economists and New Zealand Population: Problems and Policies 1900–1980s Geoffrey Brooke Anthony Endres & Alan Rogers
6.4) Crime and education

Chair: Jan Feld

Do Warrantless Arrest Laws for Domestic Violence Improve Youth Outcomes? Kabir Dasgupta Gail Pacheco
High Times: The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on Student Time Use Yu-Wei Luke Chu Seth Gershenson
Students are Almost as Effective as Professors in University Teaching Jan Feld Nicolas Salamanca & Ulf Zölitz
6.5) Data-related

Chair: Alan Bentley

Development of a business data collection to enhance the range of quarterly economic statistics Craig Liken Mathew Page
Performance measurement in the New Zealand schooling system: Challenges and opportunities Martine Udahemuka  
Towards a big data CPI for New Zealand Alan Bentley Frances Krsinich
6.6) Transport Knowledge Hub Themed Session

Chair: Adolf Stroombergen

Regional Input-Output tables:  a Bayesian construction method, and applications to transport John Holt  
Introducing the New Zealand Transport Outlook: Resources for Data and Modelling Ralph Samuelson  
System dynamics investigation of freight flows and network performance in the upper North Island Adolf Stroombergen George Stuart
12:30 – 1:30pm LUNCH