2014 Conference Papers

NZAE 2014 Conference Programme and Papers

(NZEPP): New Zealand Economic Policy Prize Entry
(SNZ): Statistics New Zealand Prize Entry
(JW-D): Jan Whitwell Prize Entry (Doctoral)
(JW-BM): Jan Whitwell Prize Entry (Bachelors or Masters)
Session Title Paper Title Presenter Co-Authors
KEYNOTE 1: John Creedy, Victoria University of Wellington
‘Measuring inequality: in pursuit of a chimera?

Time: 9.00 – 10.30am.
Chair: John Yeabsley
10.30 – 11.00 MORNING TEA
(1.1) Urban Economics 1
Session Organised by Auckland Council
11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Geoff Cooper


Introduction to the session: The Economic Consequences of Planning Choices in New Zealands Biggest City Geoff Cooper
The economic impacts of minimum parking requirements in Auckland Stuart Donovan
Stuart Crosswell, Geoff Cooper, Joshua Arbury, Timothy Hazledine
Up or out? Residential building heights in Auckland Melanie Luen
(1.2) Trade Policy
11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Bill Rosenburg



Can India connect with Asian International Production Networks through RTAs? Rahul Sen  Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Sadhana Srivastava
Global and National impacts of free trade agreements on the New Zealand Economy Erwin Corong
The impacts of preferential trading agreements on China and India’s trade Sadhana Srivastava
Don Webber, Rahul Sen
(1.3) Climate Change and the ETS Wednesday 11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Adam Daigneault Understanding the relationship between Household Characterists and GHG Emissions from Consumption Suzi Kerr Corey Allan
Climate and aggregate income: is there a long-term equilibrium? Eng Joo Tan (JW-D)
Land use change between forestry and agriculture under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme Yue Wang
Stephen Poletti, Golbon Zakeri, Joon Hwan (John) Kim, Basil Sharp
(1.4) Crime Wednesday 11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Sean Kimpton


Safety in the New Zealand sex industry Laura Meriluoto
The impact of sentencing on future employment, benefit and re-offending Sarah Crichton
Productivity Gains from Workplace Protections of Domestic Violence Victims Suzanne Snively(SNZ) (NZEPP)
(1.5) Data and Measurement
11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Andrew Coleman



Using Intersectoral Financial Balances to aid Forecasting and Policymaking Keith Rankin
Maximising the Use of Administrative Data in Sub-Annual Business Collections Nicolas Cox Mathew Page
Organisational efficiency and effectiveness for public sector organisations Evangeline Singh
12.30 – 1.30 LUNCH
(2.1) Urban Economics 2
Session Organised by Auckland Council
1.30 – 3.00pmChair: Rachael Logie


Location affordability in New Zealand cities: An intra-urban and comparative perspective Peter Nunns Stuart Donovan, Geoff Cooper, Alex Raichev
Residential Satisfaction, Crowding and Density: Evidence over Different Geographic Scales in Auckland. Eilya Torshizian
(JW-D) (SNZ)
Arthur Grimes
Big city life? Challenges and trade-offs for Auckland city Kirdan Lees
(2.2) Heterodoxy Wednesday
1.30 – 3.00pmChair: Keith Rankin


A Marxian Theory of Credit-Money Pablo Ahumada(JW-D)
Heterodoxy and Orthodoxy: Frank Knight and the Austrians on the Method and Content of Economics Geoffrey Brooke
The Austrian Entrepreneur: Resurrecting the Menger-Schumpeter Tradition Sean Kimpton
(2.3) Monetary Policy
1.30 – 3.00pmChair: Saten Kumar


A structural forecasting model for New Zealand: NZSIM Nick Sander
What Drives the New Zealand Yield Curve? Domestic vs. International Factors Enzo Cassino Tugrul Vehbi
(2.4) Education
1.30 – 3.00pmChair: Zaneta Park


A Longitudinal Analysis on the Incidence of Over-education among Immigrants and its Impacts on Earnings Sholeh Maani
Le Wen
Financial Development and Human Capital Accumulation? What is the link? Rashmi Arora
Using Predictive Modelling to Identify Students at Risk of Poor University Outcomes Tim Maloney Pengfei Jia
(2.5) Environmental Economics
1.30 – 3.00pmChair: Paul Dalziel


Trading in a Linked ETS: An Examination of New Zealand’s System Using Aggregate Data Judd Ormsby Suzi Kerr
Agro-environmental policy impacts on regional land use in New Zealand Adam Daigneault
Suzie Greenhalgh
Taxes versus tradable pollution permits: evaluating environmental policies that affect multiple pollutions Andrew Coleman

Boon-ling Yeo
Extended Poster Session
Cluster analysis for longitudinal ordinal data: a bayesian approach to estimate finite mixtures with complex random-effects Roy Costilla Ivy Liu, Richard Arnold
Income mobility in new zealand: a descriptive analysis Kristie Carter Penny Mok, Trinh Le
Interest Rates and City Growth Andrew Coleman
Competitive balance measurement in sports leagues: Why the ‘tried and true’ measure is not fit for purpose Dorian Owen
Charting Household Labour Force Statistical needs and priorities Daniel Griffiths
(3.1) Land and House Values
4.00 – 5.30pmChair: Kirdan Lees



The effect if LVR restrictions on the housing market: A counterfactual analysis Gael Price (NZEPP)
Examining the Drivers of Rural Land Values in New Zealand Corey Allan Suzi Kerr
Homeownership and Labour Market Flexibility: New Spatial-Econometric Evidence for New Zealand William Cochrane Jacques Poot
(3.2) Econometrics and Data Wednesday
4.00-5.30pmChair: Adam Jaffe
A Monte Carlo Analysis of the Performance of Alternative Meta-Analysis Estimators Bob Reed Jacques Poot
Price indexes from online data using the fixed effects window splice (FEWS) method Frances Krsinich
Modeling Calendar effects in MBIE’s Jobs Online vacancies time series Amapola Generosa Anne Fale
(3.3) A Macroeconomic smorgasbord
4.00-5.30pmChair: James Graham
Do remittances facilitate a sustainable current account? Mark Holmes Ggazi Hassan
How much have lending standards constrained U.S. recovery? Martin Fukac
Political Risk and Volatility Spillover in Stock Returns in Emerging Markets Tahir Suleman (JW-D)
(3.4) A Microeconomic smorgasbord
4.00-5.30pmChair: Anita King
Inter-regional Spillover Effects in New Zealand International Tourism Demand Joshua Curry
Antitrust Market Definition and Sensitivity of the Diversion Ratio Lydia Cheung
Do all-weather tracks help athletes train? Seamus Hogan Richard Watt
(3.5) Wellbeing
4.00-5.30pmChair: Suzanne Snively
A New Cross-Country Measure of Material Wellbeing Sean Hyland
25 Years of Counting for Nothing: Waring’s Critique of National Accounts Caroline Saunders Paul Dalziel
Wellbeing Economics: A Policy Framework for New Zealand Paul Dalziel Caroline Saunders
5.30 – 6.30 WELCOME RECEPTION, Foyer of SPR Building
KEYNOTE 2: Diane Coyle, Elightenment Economics
What do we mean when we talk about ‘the economy’

Time: 9.00 – 10.30am.
Chair: Mary Hedges
10.30 – 11.00 MORNING TEA
(4.1) Housing Market
11.00-12.30pmChair: David Hawkey



Infrastructure’s Long-Lived Impact on Urban Development: Theory and Empirics Arthur Grimes
Eyal Apatov, Larissa Lutchman, Anna Robinson
Have housing problems increased in greater Christchurch after the quakes?: Trends in housing from the Census of population and dwellings 1991-2013 Rosemary Goodyear Sonia Polak
(4.2) Experimental and External Validation
11.00-12.30pmChair: Geoffrey Brooke


Can you spare some change for charity? Experimental evidence on verbal cues and loose change effects in a Dictator Game Stephen Knowles David Fielding
Cognitive Biases, Mental Illness and Economic Decision-making: A Neuroeconomic investigation into Anhedonia. Phillip Hall
Reciprocity at the Workplace: Do Fair Wages Lead to Higher Effort, Productivity, and Profitability? Paul Chen
(4.3) International
11.00-12.30pmChair: Mark Holmes


Determinants of Capital Inflows: New Empirical evidence Muhammad Akhtaruzzaman(SNZ)
The evolution of the U.S. inflation output tradeoff Benjamin Wong
Are New Zealand and Australia natural trading partners? Dayal Talukder
(4.4) Labour Thursday 11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Daniel Griffiths Labour force projections to 2024 by age, gender and highest qualification, with a time-varying cohort method Julian Williams Ram SriRamaratnam, Xintao Zhao
Labour market insight from the 2013 census: Implications for modelling Labour market outcomes in occupational (skills) forecasting. Ram SriRamaratnam Xintao Zhao, Julian Williams
Labour’s share of New Zealand’s productivity and income gains Lisa Meehan Dean Parham
(4.5) Tax Policy and Inequality Thursday 11.00 – 12.30pmChair: Tim Maloney Working for families changes: The effect on labour supply in New Zealand Penny Mok (SNZ) (NZEPP)
Comparing inequality and mobility in economic dynamics Baochun Peng
Tax reforms and intertemporal shifting of wage-income: Evidence from Danish Monthly payroll records Peer Skov (JW-D)
12.30 -1.15 LUNCH1.15 – 2.00 NZAE AGM
(5.1) Linked Data Sets – Session Organised by GEN
2.00-3.30pmChair: Michele Lloyd


Statistics Nz’s Integrated Data and Infrastructure and Microdata Acess Facility Natalie Keyes
Earnings and employment in foreign-owned firms Lynda Sanderson
David C Mare, Richard Fabling
Employment outcomes of tertiary education: the contribution of the IDI Zaneta Park Roger Smyth
(5.2) Econometric and Economic Theory Thursday
2.00 – 3.30pmChair: Dorian Owen
Measuring the effect of Payment Innovations Martin Fukac
An analysis of dynamic pari-mutuel gambling markets Jed Armstrong
The practice of lagging variables to avoid simultaneity Bob Reed
(5.3) Exchange Rates
2.00-3.30pmChair: John McDermott


Productivity and real exchange rate movements for the ASEAN and SAARC countries: revisiting the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Maryam Ishaq (JW-D)
The J-Curve disparity in the goods and services sector in the Pacific region: Evidence from devaluation in Fiji Kushneel Prakash(JW-BM)
Real exchange rate and internation competitiveness – Concepts, measures and trends in New Zealand Dhritidyuti Bose
(5.4) Distribution
2.00-3.30pmChair: David Law
The gender pay gap in post-soviet russia: A distributional approach Anna Robinson(JW-BM) Steve Stillman
Prospective maternity risk and the gender pay gap Eric Crampton Hayden Skilling
The distributional effects of the Australian Cash Bonus Payments Response to the global financial crisis Dean Hyslop
(5.5) Health
2.00-3.30pmChair: Seamus Hogan


Mental distress and temporary employment: Empirical evidence from the UK Gail Pacheco Chris Dawson, Michail Veliziotis, Don J Webber
Poverty and individual deprivation as predictors of self-rated health over time Kristie Carter (SNZ) Fiona Imlach Gunasekara, Peter Crampton, Tony Blakely
Health sector Labour market dynamics and multi-employer collective agreements James Hogan (JW-BM)
3.30 – 4.00 AFTERNOON TEA

KEYNOTE 3: David Card, University of California, Berkeley
“Is Who You Work for Just as Important as what You Know? The Role of Firms in labour market Outcomes”

Time: 4.00 – 5.30pm.
Chair: Dean Hyslop
7.00 – CONFERENCE DINNER – Floating Pavilion
KEYNOTE 4: David Giles (AWH Philips Memorial Lecture)
“The Econometrics of Temporal Aggregation: 1956-2014”
Time: 9.00 – 10.30am.
Chair: Arthur Grimes
10.30 – 11.00 MORNING TEA
(6.1) Microsimulation
Session Organised by NZIER
11.00-12.30pmChair: Penny Mok


Microsimulation at Treasury Anita King
Modelling the early life-course: A decision-support tool for policy makers Barry Milne Roy Lay-Yee, Jessica thomas, Peter Davis
Modelling Birth Outcomes in New Zealand Bill Kaye-Blake Chris Schilling, Martin Spielauer
(6.2) Pot Luck
11.00-12.30pmChair: Jacques Poot


How do firms form their expectations? New survey evidence Saten Kumar Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Previous exposure to natural disasters and perceptions of vulnerability: Survey evidence from Fiji Pike Brown
Strategic interaction, trade and integration among small island economics: The case of PICTA Dibyendu Maiti (SNZ) (NZEPP) Rahul Sen
(6.3) Business Cycles
11.00-12.30pmChair: Donal Curtin
Sector and industry business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist and how do they relate to the national business cycle? Michael Alspach
N Sync: similarities and leader-follower relationships in international business cycles James Graham
On trend robustness and end-point issues for New Zealand business cycle facts Viv Hall
(6.4) Outcomes for Youth
11.00-12.30pmChair: Gail Pacheco
Monkey see, monkey do? How do shifts in parental socio-economic class influence children’s outcomes? Mary Hedges Gail Pacheco, Jaimee Stuart, and Susan Morton
Economic Outcomes of Youth not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) Anton Samoilenko
Kristie Carter
Armed Conflict and Child Health: Evidence from Nepal’s Maoist People’s War Apsara Karki Nepal
(6.5) Saving and Productivity
11.00-12.30pmChair: Dave Heatley


The effect of public pensions on household saving: evidence from a New Zealand natural experiment Talosaga Talosaga
Mark Vink
The Effect of Information Technology on Labour Productivity Growth in New Zealand Dorian Owen Nathan Spence
KiwiSaver and the Accumulation of Net Wealth David Law
Grant Scobie
12.30 – 1.30 LUNCH
1.30 Conference Close