The intention of this blog is to highlight economists’ work and provide material to support education and general understanding, especially as it relates to economics in New Zealand. It is not a forum for advocacy (other than better use of economics). Posts are categorised as Events, Insights or NZAE News (includes subcategories). Posts are also tagged with the JEL Classification and/or as considered appropriate (see list below). Authors are generally Councillors of the NZAE. Anyone can provide comments. Any views expressed are not necessarily those of the NZAE.
This initiative continues the tradition started with the Inaugural NZ Virtual PhD Workshop that was held in Sept 2020, when repeated lockdowns and disruptions to travel persisted due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We are proud to offer another virtual edition of this PhD workshop, this time to take place in late Oct 2021. We look forward to lots of discussions around research, to high-quality presentations, and to welcoming guest speakers and panellists once more. Please join us for this event and do submit your work for inclusion in the program. We welcome participants interested in all facets of economics, from academia, public and private sectors alike.
This event is endorsed by the New Zealand Association of Economists (NZAE) and the Best Paper and the Best Presentation Prizes are generously sponsored by the NZAE Education Trust (*).
(*) Prizes for the best paper and the best presentation can only be granted to PhD students based in New Zealand.
For further information, please see here.
Waka Kotahi encourage economists interested in working at Waka Kotahi in either a Lead Investment Advisor or Principal Investment Advisor role to enquire about the positions we currently have available. There is also an exciting opportunity for a leadership role in relation to the Monetised Benefits & Costs Manual. These roles could be based from our offices in either Auckland, Wellington or potentially Christchurch. Please see our adverts and the relevant position descriptions here and here.
John Creedy is Professor in Public Economics and Taxation at Victoria University of Wellington (VUW) where his research interests focus on public economics, labour economics, income distribution and the history of economic analysis. John initially worked for the New Zealand Treasury from 2001 to 2003. From 2011 to 2017, he was employed half time at VUW and half time in the Tax Strategy section of the New Zealand Treasury. In 2016, John received the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Economics Award and in 2018, he was elected to the Academy of the Royal Society Te Apārangi. Before coming to Wellington, John was the Truby Williams Professor of Economics at the University of Melbourne.
John’s publication record is most impressive. John has over 400 publications that include refereed journal papers, books, edited books and book chapters. Refereed journal articles account for around three-quarters of this total. Reflecting his strengths in public economics, John has not only published several papers in the Journal of Public Economics, but he also published papers in other leading journals that include the Economic Journal, European Economic Review, and Journal of Econometrics. According to the Research Papers in Economics (RePEc) worldwide citation rankings for over 60000 authors, John comfortably sits inside the top 1 per cent.
John has contributed immensely to economic analysis of the countries in which he has lived. This has resulted in a very substantial output in Australasian economics journals, including New Zealand Economic Papers (NZEP) and Economic Record. Indeed, in the published history of the first 50 years of NZEP by Buckle and Creedy (2016), John was shown to be the lead author in terms of frequency of contributions to NZEP. In fact, he has published even more since then. One of the reasons that John has been so prolific is because of his work with junior colleagues and students. He has played an immense role in developing the research capabilities of his students and of many younger staff. Indeed, his time with the New Zealand Treasury was particularly notable for joint publications with colleagues.
John’s work is not only well grounded in theory, but it is also acutely attuned to policy issues. This is illustrated by recent publications since 2015 many important issues in public finance that include among others, debt projections and fiscal sustainability, the labour supply effects of tax and transfer changes, tax rates and the user cost of capital, savings, housing and pensions, GST and food expenditure. John’s work on the analysis of inequality over this period and earlier is similarly impressive. This work has dealt with topics that include the treatment of leisure time in inequality decompositions, benefit flows, the effect of ageing on distributional outcomes, the measurement of inequality in New Zealand, and a range of papers on value judgements in relation to redistribution policy and the measurement of inequality.
We should also not overlook the many contributions John has made to topics in economic history throughout his career. These contributions include his books on the development of the theory of exchange, and separate analyses of the seminal contributions of inter alia, Pareto, Edgeworth, Marshall, Jevons, Walras and Hicks, plus a short history of economic thought. John’s ability to bring together theory and data, coupled with an understanding of economic history and the history of economic thought, makes his contributions to economic analysis stand out. His ability to combine all these aspects with a real eye to public policy relevance – especially in the countries in which he has chosen to live – make his contributions exceptional. The New Zealand Association of Economists is delighted to bestow upon John Creedy a Distinguished Fellow award.
Robert A. Buckle & John Creedy (2016) Fifty years of New Zealand Economic Papers: 1966 to 2015, New Zealand Economic Papers, 50:3, 234-260, DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2015.1116022
Congratulations to the following recipients of prizes associated with NZAE Conference 2021. More detail on each prize is available at https://nzae.org.nz/prizes/
|David Teece Prize in Industrial Organisation and Firm Behaviour||Tim Ng – Schumpeterian endogenous growth and dynamic capabilities: an under-researched nexus?|
|New Zealand Economic Policy Prize||Alexander Plum – The Role of Ethnicity in Criminal Behavior|
|NZIER Poster prize – open||Nazila Alinaghi – Income Inequality and Mobility in New Zealand: Evidence from Administrative Data|
|NZIER Poster prize – student||Shabana Kamal – Impact of droughts on farm debts: Empirical evidence from New Zealand|
|People’s Choice Poster||Tom Coupe – Who is the most sought-after economist? Ranking economists using Google Trends|
|Jan Whitwell Doctoral||Cameron Birchall – Allocating the commons: Commercial lobbying in New Zealand’s largest public fishery|
|Jan Whitwell Bachelors / Masters||Shakked Noy – The effects of neighbourhood and workplace income comparisons on subjective wellbeing|
|Seamus Hogan Research Prize||Shakked Noy – The effects of neighbourhood and workplace income comparisons on subjective wellbeing|
|Stata Prize for Excellence in Graphics Communications||Philip Vermeulen – Monetary policy, investment, and firm heterogeneity|
|Stats NZ Prize||Kabir Dasgupta – Leaving the past behind – Effect of Clean Slate Regulation on Employment and Earnings|
Congratulations to Olivia (Livvy) Mitchell, who was awarded the 2021 A. R. Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics for her paper “A Policy Evaluation of Home Detention Sentencing: Evidence from New Zealand”. The Bergstrom Prize, which is administered by the New Zealand Association of Economists Education Trust, can be awarded every two years and aims to reward the achievement of excellence in econometrics as evidenced by a research paper in any area of econometrics.
Olivia’s paper investigates the causal effects of New Zealand’s 1 October 2007 introduction of home detention as a stand-alone sentence on offender recidivism and labour market attachment. To determine the local average treatment effects of home detention, relative to similarly ranked sentences, the paper employs fuzzy regression discontinuity design and two-staged least squares instrumental variables applied to population-wide data from the Integrated Data Infrastructure managed by Statistics New Zealand.
The analysis shows no evidence that home detention affects the recidivism rate of first-time offenders, a result counter to a 2011 review by the Ministry of Justice, or that home detention increases the offender’s attachment to the labour market. A range of robustness tests indicate that the overall conclusions are not sensitive to variations in estimation methods, offender sample, recidivism period and definition, sentence categorization rules, and re-offence type.
Olivia interprets the results to imply that there is little justification for promoting home detention as a means for reducing crime or improving offenders’ short-term or long-term labour market positions. Nevertheless, as noted in the paper, the clear benefits of expanding New Zealand’s home detention scheme are the cost-savings to the taxpayers and the easing of prison overpopulation.
In their assessment of Olivia’s paper the adjudicators, Dr Iris Claus, Professor Mark Holmes, and Dr Leo Krippner, were highly complimentary. “The paper is well written and structured. The econometric methods are carefully explained and the author appears to be well on top of the econometric theory and application.” More generally, the adjudicators noted that Olivia’s paper provides an excellent example of how careful econometrics can contribute to public policy debates, in this case about the effectiveness of home detention in New Zealand.
Guest Lecturers: Prof. Gail Pacheco and Dr. Philip Stevens
Productivity by the numbers
Productivity matters for wellbeing. Achieving higher productivity – producing more with what we have (people, knowledge, skills, produced capital, and natural resources) – means there is more to go around for current and future generations. Yet New Zealand’s productivity record is poor. At this lecture, the New Zealand Productivity Commission will look at the relationship between productivity and wellbeing, dig into the numbers behind New Zealand’s ailing productivity, and look at priority actions to lift New Zealand’s productivity.
Following the lecture will be a discussion with panellists Simon Wakeman from Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, and Bryan Chapple from the Treasury.
About the presenter
Prof. Gail Pacheco, Commissioner at the New Zealand Productivity Commission and Director of the NZ Work Research Institute at AUT
Gail is an applied econometrician with a passion for evidence-based analysis, particularly in the labour and health fields. Gail has extensive experience leading large-scale, multi-institutional funded projects, focused on research with high policy-relevance. Evidence of the policy impact of her work is highlighted by being the 2018 recipient of the NZIER Economics Award that recognises “outstanding contributions to the advancement of economics and its applications in NZ”. In 2019, she also received the AUT Medal (AUT’s top award) for her research, scholarship and application of integrated data to help inform social policy and wellbeing.
Dr. Philip Stevens, Economics & Research Director, New Zealand Productivity Commission
Philip is an economist with twenty-years’ experience of economic and social research in the university, independent and public sectors. Philip has published in leading peer-reviewed international journals on subjects such as: productivity analysis; employment; competition; evaluation; the measurement of performance in the public sector; broadband; R&D and human capital.
Read the Commission’s publication: Productivity by the numbers
Date: Friday 25th June 2021
Venue: Level 3, The Treasury, 1 The Terrace, Wellington
Time: 10:00 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.
RSVP for in-person attendance: Treasury.Academiclinkages@treasury.govt.nz
by Wednesday 23rd June 2021
Please RSVP with your name
- An interview with Gary Hawke (By John Yeabsley)
- Lockdowns Need Not Reduce Wellbeing (By Arthur Grimes)
- In Praise of the Viennese School of Economics. The Marginal Revolutionaries: How Austrian Economists Fought the War of Ideas by Janek Wasserman (By Brian Easton)
- WEAI 96th Annual Conference June 27 to July 1, 2021
- The Five-Minute Interview with John McDermott
- A Preview of the Forthcoming Release of Quarterly Institutional Sector Accounts (By Jeff Cope)
- 2B RED
- BLOGWATCH (By Paul Walker)
- Research in the Department of Economics and Finance at Massey University
- New Members
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and The Treasury are pleased to announce a workshop on fiscal and monetary policy in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The workshop will take place 22 June – at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and remotely.
The aim of the workshop is to bring together the New Zealand macroeconomic research community to discuss recent innovative analysis and the outlook for macroeconomic policy.
Dr Caralee McLiesh (Chief Executive and Secretary to the Treasury) and Professor Eric Leeper (Paul Goodloe McIntire Professor in Economics at the University of Virginia) will deliver keynote addresses.
Presented papers will cover issues including:
Enhancing the role of fiscal policy in macro stabilisation
Estimating fiscal multipliers
Fiscal consolidation scenarios for NZ
Distributional effects of monetary policy
The welfare implications of a dual mandate for monetary policy
You can find more details and how to register, at the Reserve Bank of NZ website.
- House prices and affordability by Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Peter C. B. Phillips
- Repeat sales house price indices: comparative properties under alternative data generation processes by Arthur Grimes, Kade Sorensen & Chris Young
- City with a billion dollar view by G.C.K. Cooper & K. Namit
- Real estate bubbles and contagion: new empirical evidence from Canada by Imad Rherrad, Jean-Louis Bago & Mardochée Mokengoy
- Effects of air quality on house prices: evidence from China’s Huai River Policy by Xinghua Liu, Qiang Li, Satish Chand & Keiran Sharpe
- The causes and economic consequences of rising regional housing prices in New Zealand by Peter Nunns
- House prices, (un)affordability and systemic risk by Efthymios Pavlidis, Ivan Paya & Alexandros Skouralis
- Housing equity and household consumption in retirement: evidence from the Singapore Life Panel© by Lipeng Chen, Liang Jiang, Sock-Yong Phang & Jun Yu
- Price effects of the special housing areas in Auckland by Mario A. Fernandez, Gonzalo E. Sánchez & Santiago Bucaram
The 2021 NZAE conference will now run into Thursday 24 June.
The conference dates are now 23-24 June 2021.
Other details remain the same, including:
- located at Victoria University of Wellington, Rutherford House, Pipitea Campus
- deadline for early-bird registration is Thursday 13th May
- full details at dedicated conference site https://www.nzaeconference.co.nz/
This year’s 61st NZAE Annual conference is for ONE day ONLY and NOT the usual 3 day.
UPDATE: Since initial notice dates extended to 23-24 June.
The New Zealand Association of Economists is pleased to announce:
First Call for Papers
61st New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference
Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University of Wellington Wednesday 23rd, June 2021
Abstracts can be submitted here.
Stata Prize for Excellence in Graphics Communication
The Stata Prize for Excellence in Graphics Communications will be awarded to the written paper that is deemed to make the best use of graphs for data visualization or communication of research findings using graphics. The papers will be judged by leading empirical researchers in economics.
Please address all conference enquiries to:
NZAE Conference Committee
New Zealand Association of Economists (Inc.)
The annual NZAE Conference in 2021 will be Wednesday 23rd June at Victoria University of Wellington, Rutherford House, Pipitea Campus.
UPDATE: Since initial notice dates extended to 23-24 June.
Reflecting the continuing challenges of operating in a COVID19 environment, this year we offer a more compact one-day format.
We welcome two distinguished keynote speakers:
- John Creedy (Victoria University of Wellington) has made important contributions to the study of public economics, labour economics and income distribution in New Zealand.
- Marjan van den Belt (Terra Moana Ltd) is an ecological economist actively engaged in helping organisations and community’s transition towards a sustainability perspective using regenerative economics.
The diversity of their insights, together with those of our other conference contributors, will ensure that the conference appeals to a broad spread of interests.
Key dates leading up to the Conference are:
- Tuesday 23rd February. First notice of conference sent out
- Tuesday 23rd February. Portal for abstract submissions opens
- Tuesday 23rd March. Final notice of conference sent out
- Friday 26th March. Conference registration opens
- Friday 2nd April. Abstracts Due
- By Thursday 22nd April. Notification of acceptances
- Thursday 13th May. Registration deadline for presenters
- Thursday 13th May. Deadline for early-bird registration
- Monday 7th June. Full papers due for entries to prizes
- Wednesday 23rd June. Conference start
More detail is available at the dedicated conference website https://www.nzaeconference.co.nz/
Presentations planned by various parties can be found at individual websites listed at https://www.nzae.org.nz/events/general-presentations/
Some early in 2021 include:
- Friday 31 January. Mikael Elinder of Uppsala University, Sweden on “Smart and Generous” at University of Otago in Dunedin
- Tuesday 9 February. LEANZ presentations on “Resource Management Review Panel Recommendations for RMA Reform” at Bell Gully in Auckland
- Friday 12 February. Girol Karacaoglu on “Public Policy for Intergenerational Wellbeing” at The Treasury in Wellington – more info
- Monday 15 February. LEANZ presentations on “Resource Management Review Panel Recommendations for RMA Reform” at Bell Gully in Wellington
Please approach individual organisations for further details.
- An interview with Arthur Grimes (By John Yeabsley)
- WEAI 96th Annual Conference June 27 to July 1, 2021
- The Five-Minute Interview with Robert MacCulloch
- If Bill Phillips were Governor….? (By Grant M Scobie)
- Book Review of The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival (By Arthur Grimes)
- 2B RED
- New Members
- Blogwatch (By Paul Walker)
- Research in the Department of Economics at Lincoln University
- Reinventing the Bazaar by John McMillan (By Weshah Razzak)
- Better off? Distributional comparisons for ordinal data about personal well-being by Stephen P. Jenkins
- A welfare reform for New Zealand: mandatory savings not taxation by Roger Douglas & Robert MacCulloch
- Modelling income data with exogenous measurement factors by Richard Penny
- The importance of frontier firms in total factor productivity in New Zealand, 2001–2016 by R. I. D. Harris
- The business cycle and monetary policy: what changed after the GFC? by Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott
All eight universities in NZ, with representatives from each econ department/school, have joined together to deliver virtual seminars by speakers both from the region and well beyond, throughout semester 2 of 2020. Seminars are generally at 3pm Friday.
Details can be found at https://sites.google.com/view/nz-econ-eseminar-series/home
This initiative was conceived during the lockdown period New Zealand – and the rest of the world – experienced, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many academic activities moved online and to a virtual space, including many research events. It seemed appropriate to think about how to ensure that important research conversations keep going, while socially distancing, also and especially within the community of students enrolled in a PhD program in economics at any of the NZ universities, who might otherwise find themselves even more isolated as a result of the ongoing travel restrictions limiting the opportunities for interactions and research exchange. We welcome participants interested in all facets of economics, from academia, public and private sectors alike.
Registration and Zoom link at https://sites.google.com/view/nzvirtualphdworkshop
- An interview with Paul Dalziel (by John Yeabsley)
- WEAI –Virtual International Conference March 17-19, 2021
- Obituary – Jas McKenzie
- The ‘Five Minute Interview’ with Brendon Moyle
- What do we know about the quality of statistics produced from a combination of sources? (By Christine Bycroft)
- Economics Teaching in New Zealand: Emphasising Key Business Applications (By Michael Cameron, Steven Lim & Portia Thompson)
- 2B RED
- Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
- Relatedness, Complexity and Local Growth (by Benjamin Davies and Dave Maré, Motu)
- New Members
- Research in the Department of Economics at the University of Otago
- The ‘disciplinary effect’ of the performance-based research fund process in New Zealand by Robert A. Buckle & John Creedy
- Visual imagination and the performance of undergraduate economics students by David Fielding, Viktoria Kahui & Dennis Wesselbaum
- Loss aversion in New Zealand housing by Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Cameron Haworth
- Export tax and import-tariff avoidance: evidence from the trade data discrepancy in the China-New Zealand trade by Kuntal K. Das, Laura Meriluoto & Amy Rice
- Male height and wellbeing in nineteenth century New Zealand: an analysis of the Boer War contingents by Geoffrey Brooke & Lydia Cheung
Call for Papers
2020 New Zealand Virtual PhD Workshop
We are pleased to announce that the first New Zealand Virtual PhD Workshop endorsed by the New Zealand Association of Economists will take place on Friday, September 18, 2020.
The COVID-19 crisis has many negative effects, but also leads to innovative concepts and allows us to use unexploited technologies. By using online communication platforms, we can broaden participation and achieve a greater diversity of voices.
The aim of this Workshop is to promote the exchange of ideas among PhD students conducting research in all fields of economics. The Workshop offers a platform for young economists to connect, build networks, and receive feedback.
The Workshop will take place using Zoom (live streaming). Each accepted paper will be allocated 20-minutes for its presentation and 10 minutes for questions and discussion.
We cordially invite PhD students and PostDocs to send an extended abstract or full paper to: firstname.lastname@example.org by August 14, 2020. Authors will be informed about the acceptance of their submission by the end of August
With generous support by the NZAE Education Trust, we will award a prize ($300) for the best paper and a prize ($200) for the best presentation. To be eligible for the full paper award, a full paper is required by the submission deadline. Only currently enrolled PhD students are eligible for the prizes.
We are looking forward to seeing you online!
Simona Fabrizi (University of Auckland)
Andrea Menclova (University of Canterbury)
Dennis Wesselbaum (University of Otago)