2016 Conference papers

Links to papers within Presenter name (where available).

(NZEPP): New Zealand Economic Policy Prize Entry
(SNZ): Statistics New Zealand Prize Entry
(SHP): Seamus Hogan Prize Entry
(JW-D): Jan Whitwell Prize Entry (Doctoral)
(JW-BM): Jan Whitwell Prize Entry (Bachelors or Masters)
Time Session Title Paper Title Presenter/s Co-Author
Wednesday 29 June
9:00 – 10:30am Keynote 1. James K. Galbraith Chair: Tim Hazledine Inequality: A Global and Macroeconomic View
10:30 – 11:00am MORNING TEA
11:00 – 12:30pm 1.1) Society Chair: Bill Kaye-Blake Joint Culpability: The impact of Medical Marijuana laws on crime Wilbur Townsend (SHP, JW B-M)
The Economics of Social Services Dave Heatley Geoff Lewis
1.2) Macroeconomics Chair: Kim Mundy Taxes and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Meta Regression Analysis Nazila Alinaghi (NZEPP, SHP, JW-D)
Government Domestic Borrowing and Crowding Out Effect in Oil-Dependent Economies Anthony Anyanwu (SHP, JW-D)
Stock Market Volatility and Economic Activity Michael Callaghan (JW-BM)
1.3) Disasters Chair: Richard Watt The Household Response to Persistent Natural Disasters: Evidence from Bangladesh Azreen Karim (JW-D)
How Resilient are poor households to disaster risks? Tauisi Taupo (SNZ, JW-D)
Labour market dynamics following a regional disaster Arthur Grimes (NZEPP, SNZ) Richard Fabling, Levente Timar
1.4) Trade Chair:Jane Turner Impact of US Cotton Subsidies on Export: Do the Cotton Dispute and WTO Settlement Matter? Lan Anh Tong (JW-D)
Impact on Donors Trade through Aid for Trade: Australia and New Zealand and Asia Rukmani Gounder
Impact of non-Tariff Measures on Exporting Countries: Estimates for the EU and New Zealand Markets Mike Webb (NZEPP, SHP, SNZ, JWD) Anna Strutt, John Gibson
1.5) Big Data & Living Standards Modelling Chair: Paul Rodway A model for Treasury’s Living Standard Framework Anita King
The impact of Youth Service on the outcomes of disadvantaged youth Sarah Crichton Sylvia Dixon, Keith McLeod
Estimating the future real rate of return on New Zealand 10-year government bonds Matthew Bell Tugrul Vehbi, Ben Udy
1.6) Productivity Chair: Alan Bentley Employee integration and productivity in New Zealand: A Study of migrant Dairy workers in Canterbury Jacob Kambuta (JWD)
The impact of R&D grants on performance of New Zealand firms Simon Wakeman
Public Sector productivity and quality changes Patrick Nolan Grant Scobie
12:30 – 1:30pm LUNCH
1:30 – 3:00pm 2.1) Tax Chair: Siobhan Coffey Allowing for Income Effects in Estimates of the Elasticity of Taxable Income John Creedy Norman Gemmell, Josh Teng
Smith, Mill and Say on Taxation Sean Kimpton
Flat Tax in New Zealand: Unemployment and Social Security Taxes 1930-70 Keith Rankin
2.2) Housing-related Chair: Ting Huang Housing specific LVR restrictions and monetary policy in New Zealand Neroli Austin (JW-BM)
Climbing the property ladder: An analysis of market integration in London property prices Mark Holmes Jesus Otero, Theodore Panagiotidis
Will air transport or tourism affect urban property prices? The case of regional cities in New Zealand? Kan Wai Hong Tsui David Tan (NZEPP, SHP, SNZ) Clement Kong, Wing Chow
2.3) Mixed Chair: Zoe Wallis Impact of Climate Change on crop production in Ghana: A micro-econometric analysis Prince Maxwell Etwire Viktoria Kahui, David Fielding
A comment on Wu and Xia (2015), and the case for two-factor Shadow Short Rates Leo Krippner
Estimating Income Dynamics from cross-sectional data using Probabilistic matching Christopher Ball
2.4) Growth & Productivity Chair: Gary Dunnet Higher Education Institutions and Regional Growth: The Case of New Zealand Eyal Apatov Arthur Grimes
Otago Farmers Market: An Empirical Analysis of Possible Pathways to Growth Kate Preston (SHP, JW-BM) Nathan Berg
Geographic proximity and productivity convergence across New Zealand firms Guanyu Zheng
2.5) New Zealand Fiscal Policy Framework Chair: Kam Szeto Returning to surplus: New Zealand’s recent fiscal consolidation experience Richard Sullivan Dhiritidyuti Bose, Renee Philip
A Guide to New Zealand’s Fiscal Management Approach Niki Lomax Ben Udy
The Design of Fiscal Targets: Insights from the Literature for New Zealand Udayan Mukherjee Oscar Parkyn
2.6) New Zealand Society Chair: Ingrid Sage Changing tenure patterns for Māori and pacific people in New Zealand Rosemary Goodyear
Net Worth in New Zealand – results from the Household Expenditure Survey Net Worth Supplement Nairn Macgibbon
Tax-transfer policies and income inequality: New Zealand in 1995-2013 Matt Nolan (JW-D)
4:00 – 5:30pm 3.1) Seeking competitive outcomes: issues in regulation and competition enforcement Chair: Simona Fabrizi The impact of foreign ownership on merger authorisations Reuben Irvine Lilla Csorgo
Asymmetric costs and price uplifts David Ruck
Vexing Competition Questions: Panel Discussion Catherine Corbett Mayuresh Prasad
3.2) Exchange Rates Chair: Peter Nicholl Bond premia, monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics Anella Munro
Are there bubbles in the exchange rates? Some evidence from G10 and emerging markets countries. Yang Hu (JW-D) Les Oxley
Deviations in real exchange rate levels across OECD members and their structural determinants Daan Steenkamp (JWD) Martin Berka
3.3) Environment Chair: Suzi Kerr Environmental Tax Reform (ETR) and New Zealand Economic Performance: Modelling with E3ME Sina Ahmadzadeh Mashinchi (NZEPP, SHP, SNZ, JW-D) Basil Sharp, Stephen Poletti
Assessing environmental, financial, recreational and cultural values of rivers in Canterbury: a choice experiment application Sini Miller (JW-D) Caroline Saunders, Peter Tait
The best partner for Australia to bilaterally link its emissions trading scheme Duy Nong (SHP, JW-D) Mahinda Siriwardana
3.4) Gender Economics Chair: Amber Watson The Gender Pay Gap in New Zealand: Evidence from the SOWL / HLFS Bill Cochrane Gail Pacheco
Analysis of Rural Women’s Economic and Political Participation in Shaanxi, China: Preliminary Results and Insights Mei Yang (SHP, JW-D) Allan Rae, David Tripe, Martin Young et al.
Impact of governance and gender on microfinance efficiency – A stochastic frontier analysis Uzma Bibi Hatice Ozer Balli, Claire D Matthews, David W L Tripe
3.5) Panel Discussion: Chair: Norman Gemmell (Chair in Public Finance, Victoria University) Guarding the Public Purse: Fiscal Policy Frameworks to support a modern economy Panellists:
1)Tim Ng (Director Economic Systems New Zealand Treasury),
2)John McDermott (Assistant Governor and Head of Economics, Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
3)David Fielding (Professor of Economics, Otago University)
3.6) Disasters Chair: Michael Johnston Natural disasters, social protection, and risk perceptions Pike Brown Adam Daigneault, Emilia Tjernstrom, Wenbo Zou
Giving money and time – the response to the Christchurch earthquake Jan Feld Harold Cuffe
Multinomial-logistic model to investigate the change in the level of insurance coverage post natural catastrophe Richard Mumo (NZEPP, SHP)
Thursday 30 June
9:00 – 10:30am Keynote 2. John Gibson Chair: John McDermott What can faculty salaries tell us about the returns to quantity and quality of economics research?
10:30 – 11:30am MORNING TEA
11:00 – 12:30pm 4.1) Microeconomics Chair: Amy Rice Incorporating the Effect of Successfully Bagging Game into Recreational Hunting Arwin Pang
Effects of Tort Law Reform on Incentive for Innovation: A Calabresian Approach Ping Lin Tianle Zhang
Abuse of market power: the end of “make-believe” analysis? Donal Curtin (NZEPP)
4.2) Inflation expectations Chair: John McDermott Inflation expectations curve: a tool for monitoring inflation expectations Michelle Lewis (NZEPP)
Firms’ Asset Allocations and Inflation Expectations Saten Kumar
How Credible is Inflation Targeting in Asia? A Quantile Unit Root Perspective Harold Glenn Valera (JWD) Mark Holmes, Gazi Hassan
4.3) Case Studies Chair: Sini Miller Divestiture as Conglomerate Merger Remedy, with Case Study of the 2005 P&G-Gillette Merger Lydia Cheung
Adoption intensity of conservation agriculture in the Masvingo district of Zimbabwe Machiweyi Kunzekweguta (JWD) Karl Rich, Michael Lyne
Technical, Allocative, Cost, Scale and environmental efficiencies of rice milling in Kenya: A Non-Parametric Approach Eucabeth Majiwa
4.4) Mixed Chair: Steffen Lippert Developing and Communicating Credence Attributes through Agri-food Global Value Chains to Maximise Export Returns Caroline Saunders Tim Driver, Meike Guenther et al.
Can ASEAN create a Partial Customs Union post-2015? Sadhana Srivastava Rahul Sen, Sanchita Basu Das
Attack, defence and the market for protection Simona Fabrizi Steffen Lippert, Jose A Rodrigues-Neto
4.5) Mobility, Equity & Poverty Chair: Peter Fieger Measuring Income Mobility: Insights from TIM Curves Norman Gemmell John Creedy
Investigating intergenerational mobility using linked census data Isabelle Sin Stella McMullen
The Impact of Rural Bank Loans on Regional Economic Growth and Poverty Rate in Indonesia Laksmi Devi (SHP, JWD)
4.6) New Zealand Chair:Bettina Schaer Does New Zealand Economics Have a Useful Past? The Example of Trade Policy Geoffrey Brooke Anthony M. Endres, Alan J Rogers
Is New Zealand gainfully participating in Global Value Chains? Rahul Sen Sadhana Srivastava
The Paris Agreement and its Economic Impact on New Zealand Mario Fernandez (NZEPP)
1:15 – 2:00pm LUNCH / NZAE AGM
2:00 – 3:30pm 5.1) Shocks & Violence Chair: David Sinclair Health Shock and Households’ Decision on Allocation of Children’s Time: Evidence from Ethiopia Yonatan Dinku (JWD)
Maternal Stress and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from an Unexpected Earthquake Swarm Andrea Menclova Steven Stillman
The effects of politically motivated violence on international tourists’ choices: an interaction model for Colombia Andrés Camacho (SHP, SNZ, JW-D)
5.2) Labour & Entrepreneurship Chair: Bill Rosenberg Are high positive net migration flows a new normal? Disaggregated modelling by citizenship and visa Ram Sriramaratnam Xintao Zhao Xintao Zhao
Dynamics of changes in macro-labour market variables: Decomposition of Participation and Employment rates and relationship Ram Sriramaratnam Amapola Generosa
Obstructing innovation – social processes that inhibit entrepreneurship Amanda Lynn (SHP, JWD)
5.3) Global Food Security & Sustainable Development Chair: Alan Renwick Why SOME are still hungry: A cross-country analysis with Global Hunger Index (GHI) Nazmun Ratna Linh Ho
Market structure and coherence of international cooperation: the case of the dairy sector in Malawi Alan Renwick Cesar Revoredo-Giha
Policy options for sustainability in potato value chains in Bihar: a system dynamics approach Karl Rich Kanar Dizyee
5.4) Urban Economics Chair: Chris Parker A Positive Expected Rent or A Negative Supply Effect? A Study of Auckland’s MUL Policy Eilya Torshizian (JWD)
Affordability Decomposition for Auckland Harshal Chitale (JWD) Eilya Torshizian
Negative Envy or Positive Amenity Effects? A Neighbourhood Study of Aucklanders’ Residential Satisfaction Eilya Torshizian (JW-D) Arthur Grimes
5.5) Econometrics Chair: Jeremy Couchman Accounting for Heterogeneous and Non-Stationary Multifactor Error Structure in Panel Dataset: New Monte Carlo Simulation Experiments Akinwande Atanda (JW- D)
More Evidence on “Which Panel Data Estimator Should I Use?” Bob Reed Bill Rea, Mantobaye Moundigbaye
Bootstrap Methods for Inference in the Parks Model Mantobaye Moundigbaye (JWD)
5.6) Income & Employment Chair: Grant Andrews Modelled Territorial Authority Gross Domestic Product for New Zealand Peter Ellis (SNZ)
Production, Sales Activity and the aggregate distribution of factor incomes a note Andrew Coleman
Jobless Recoveries: The Interaction between Financial and Search Frictions Dennis Wesselbaum
3:30 – 4:00pm AFTERNOON TEA
4:00 – 5:30pm Keynote 3. Janet Currie Chair: Paul Dalziel Early life and the Roots of Inequality
Friday 1 July
9:00 – 10:30am Keynote 4. David Teece Chair: Arthur Grimes Dynamic Capabilities: Towards a Cambridge/Austrian Theory of Innovating Firms and Dynamic Resource Allocation.
10:30 – 11:00am MORNING TEA
11:00 – 12:30pm 6.1) Applied Microeconomics Chair: Donna Purdue Does Charity Begin at Home or Overseas? Stephen Knowles Trudy Sullivan
Low-quality patents in the eye of the beholder: Evidence from multiple examiners Adam Jaffe Gaetan de Rossenfosse, Beth Webster
Distributional properties of within-season competitive balance measures based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman index Dorian Owen
6.2) Wellbeing Chair: Martin Fukac Wellbeing Economics and Treasury’s Perspective on New Zealand’s Economic Performance Paul Dalziel (NZEPP) Caroline Saunders
Subjective wellbeing and time preference: testing the discounted utility model Judd Ormsby Arthur Grimes, Eyal Apatov
The Rich List Twenty Years on Tim Hazledine Max Rashbrooke
6.3) Development & Resources Chair: Ross Wilson The costs and benefits of urban development: A theoretical and empirical synthesis Peter Nunns Tim Denne
SARIMA-MLR Model for Forecasting Residential Water Consumption, Case Study: Hamilton, New Zealand Farnaz Farhangi
Money, sunshine, and rain: examining the drivers of rural land values over time and space Corey Allan Suzi Kerr
6.4) Productivity, Innovation & Growth Chair: David Law Productivity Growth and Labour Reallocation: Latin America versus East Asia Murat Ungor
Misallocation and productivity in New Zealand Lisa Meehan (SNZ)
The private returns to innovation for New Zealand firms Simon Wakeman
6.5) Industry Chair: Stuart Pitts Coalition for upstream joint investment meets downstream technology choice Keizo Mizuno Kazuhiko Mikami
Conflict of Interest, Disclosure, and Vertical Relationships: An Experimental Analysis Paul Chen Martin Richardson
The links between intangible investment, competition and firm performance Nathan Chappell Adam Jaffe
6.6) Datasets Chair: Michael Challands A Rough Guide to New Zealand’s Longitudinal Business Database Lynda Sanderson Richard Fabling
Redeveloped Household Labour Force Survey Sharon Snelgrove
Updated Input-Output Tables for New Zealand Jeroen Kole
12:30 – 1:30pm LUNCH