12th A R Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics to Daan Steenkamp

Congratulations to Daan Steenkamp, who was awarded the 2017 A. R. Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics for his paper Daan_Steenkamp_dp17-02. The Bergstrom Prize can be awarded every two years and aims to reward the achievement of excellence in econometrics, as evidenced by a research paper in any area of econometrics.

If an asset price contains a ‘bubble’ it will exhibit explosive (i.e. exponential) dynamics. Recently developed tests by Phillips et al. (2015a) and Phillips et al. (2015b) provide an accurate way to gauge whether asset prices are experiencing explosive dynamics, or have done so in the past.

Daan Steenkamp’s paper applies those tests to eleven of the most commonly traded exchange rates at a daily frequency and over a long sample. When measured at a daily frequency, the volatility of exchange rates tends to be high and potentially non-stationary, and there may be a size distortion in the standard tests causing them to over-reject the null that the series is explosive. For this reason, a wild bootstrapping technique is used to compute critical values for statistical interference.

A second contribution of Daan’s paper is to consider the possibility of both positive and negative explosive periods. Currency pairs provide a natural test case in this regard because explosive increases (or collapses) in a foreign currency imply a corresponding collapse (or increase) in the given base currency. Furthermore, the influence of the base currency on the explosive dynamics may be inferred by considering the dynamics of its effective exchange rate, i.e. that currency’s value against a wide basket of foreign currencies.

The results show that bouts of explosiveness in exchange rates against the United States (US) dollar are uncommon at a daily frequency. Periods of explosiveness tend to last for several days but involve only small changes in currency levels. These also usually reverse shortly afterwards.

Second, the dynamics of the US dollar appear to be largely responsible for the results found for the individual currency pairs, as evidenced by a high concordance of their explosiveness with explosiveness in the broad value of the US dollar exchange rate. This result suggests that there are relatively few instances where explosiveness in individual cross-rates reflected country-specific factors. There is also evidence that explosive episodes in currency markets coincide with periods of high market volatility.

In their assessment, the adjudicators Professors Mark Holmes and Bob Reed noted that Daan’s work was “competent analysis based on cutting edge econometric techniques that provide valuable insights.”

2017 NZEP Issue 2 special issue on Advances in Competition Policy and Regulation

The contents of New Zealand Economic Papers, Volume 51, Issue 2, 2017 (available online or by subscription):

  • Introduction to the Special Issue on Advances in Competition Policy and Regulation by Simona Fabrizi, Steffen Lippert & John Panzar
  • Competition policy in the global era by Luís Cabral
  • Welfare costs of coordinated infrastructure investments: the case of competing transport modes by Richard Meade & Arthur Grimes
  • Mixed pricing in monopoly and oligopoly: theory and implications for merger analysis by Tim Hazledine
  • Targeted ex post evaluations in a data-poor world by Lilla Csorgo & Harshal Chitale
  • How are industry concentration and risk factors related? Evidence from Brazilian stock markets by Rogério Mazali
  • Brand-level diversion ratios from product-level data by Lydia Cheung

April 2017 AI (#58) includes interview with Karacaoglu

Asymmetric Information Issue No. 58

Contents

  • Editorial
  • An Interview with Girol Karacaoglu (by Joey Au)
  • The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Kirdan Lees)
  • (Ir)rationality and the Case for Behavioural Economics (by Jan Feld)
  • Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
  • (Motu) STEM Graduates and Productivity (by David C Maré, Trinh Le, Richard Fabling and Nathan Chappell)
  • (Stats New Zealand) Statistics New Zealand’s household surveys programme (by Patrick Ongley)
  • Report from GEN
  • A R Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics 2017
  • Research in Progress (Auckland University of Technology)
  • NEW MEMBERS (2017, through to 15 March)

2017 NZEP Issue 1 available

The contents of New Zealand Economic Papers, Volume 51, Issue 1, 2017 (available online or by subscription):

  • Commodity trade between the US and Korea and the J-curve effect by Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, Jia Xu & Sujata Saha
  • Estimating the willingness to pay for Warmer and Drier Homes by John Gibson, Riccardo Scarpa & Halahingano Rohorua
  • Educational mismatches and earnings in the New Zealand labour market by Jian Z. Yeo & Sholeh A. Maani
  • Stability of an exponential distribution for New Zealand taxable personal income by R. John Irwin & Timothy C. Irwin
  • Labour supply in New Zealand and the 2010 tax and transfer changes by John Creedy & Penny Mok
  • The source of wealth by Elizabeth Webster
  • A note on inequality-preserving distributional changes by John Creedy

Conference presenters invited to enter for David Teece Prize in Industrial Organisation and Firm Behaviour

The David Teece Prize in Industrial Organisation and Firm Behaviour is a newly-established award made possible through the generous support of the Berkeley Research Group.

The prize will be awarded to the paper presented at the New Zealand Association of Economists annual conference that is deemed to make the best contribution to the study of industrial organisation and/or firm behaviour. Papers need not be applied to New Zealand, but preference will be given to those that demonstrate their results are relevant for New Zealand.

This $2,500 award is sponsored by Berkeley Research Group.

CONDITIONS OF ENTRY

  • Any paper that contributes to industrial organisation and/or firm behaviour may be entered in this competition.
  • Paper submission must meet all of the deadlines for abstract and full paper submission in order to remain eligible.
  • Entrants must be able to attend and present their paper at the NZAE Conference. The presentation may be either an Oral Presentation or Poster Presentation.
  • When submitting the abstract also select entry into this competition through the conference website.
  • It is the written paper that will be judged based on the following criteria: relevance to the fields of industrial organisation and/or firm behaviour; the quality of economic analysis; and relevance to New Zealand.

Dec 2016 AI (#57) includes interviews with Kerr and Nana

Asymmetric Information Issue No. 57

Contents

  • Editorial
  • An Interview with Suzi Kerr (by Lew Evans)
  • The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Ganesh Nana)
  • NZIER Economics Award for 2016 John Creedy
  • NZAE Conference 2016 Attendee Survey
  • NZIER Economics Award Acceptance John Creedy
  • NZAE PhD Student Workshop 2017
  • (Motu) Income or Consumption: Which Better Predicts Subjective Wellbeing? (by Thomas Carver and Arthur Grimes)
  • WEAI Conferences, 2017 and 2018
  • Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
  • GEN Update
  • A R Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics 2017
  • Research in Progress (University of Otago)
  • NEW MEMBERS (mid-July to mid-September 2016)
  • Stata advert

2017 NZAE Conference dates and keynotes

The NZAE are pleased to announce the following keynote speakesr at their 2017 Conference, held 12-14th July 2017 at Victoria University’s Rutherford House.

    • Lisa Cameron, Professor of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash, more.
    • William Strange, Professor of Business Economics, Rotman, more.
    • Andrew Atkeson, Professor of Economics and Finance, UCLA, more.
    • John Gibson, Professor of Economics, Waikato, more

Details including Programme and Paper Submission can be found at the dedicated NZAE Conference site.

2017 Conference important dates:

  • Wednesday 22nd February First notice of conference sent out
  • Wednesday 22nd February Portal for abstract submissions opens
  • Friday 24th March Final notice of conference sent out
  • Monday 27th March Conference registration opens
  • Monday 3rd April Abstracts Due
  • By Monday 24th April Notification of acceptances
  • Monday 15th May Registration deadline for presenters
  • Monday 15th May Deadline for early-bird registration
  • Monday 12th June Full papers due for entries to prizes
  • Wednesday 12th July Conference start
  • Friday 14th July Conference end

2016 NZEP Issue 3 celebrates 50 years of journal

The contents of New Zealand Economic Papers, Volume 50, Issue 3, 2016 (available online or by subscription):

  • Introduction to NZEP Special Issue by Gary Hawke
  • Fifty years of New Zealand Economic Papers: 1966 to 2015 by Robert A. Buckle & John Creedy
  • Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand’s post-Second World War business cycles by Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott
  • Does New Zealand economics have a useful past? The example of trade policy and economic development by Geoffrey Brooke, Anthony Endres & Alan Rogers
  • Eighty years of urban development in New Zealand: impacts of economic and natural factors by Arthur Grimes, Eyal Apatov, Larissa Lutchman & Anna Robinson
  • Inequality in New Zealand 1983/84 to 2012/13 by Christopher Ball & John Creedy
  • New Zealand’s experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations by Michelle Lewis & C. John McDermott
  • Book review: A few hares to chase: the life and economics of Bill Phillips, by Alan Bollard, reviewed by Nicholas Barr

August 2016 AI (#56) with conference keynote abstracts

Asymmetric Information Issue 56

Contents:

  • Editorial
  • An Interview with Ilan Noy (by John Creedy)

  • The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Judy Kavanagh)

  • NZAE Membership Survey 2015

  • NZAE Conference Keynote Speaker Abstracts

  • NZAE Conference Photos

  • Awards Presented at NZAE Conference 2016

  • Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)

  • (Motu) The Impact of the 90-day Trial Policy

    (by Nathan Chappell and Isabelle Sin)

  • WEAI Conferences, 2017 and beyond

  • GEN Annual Conference 2016

  • (Stats New Zealand) New Information in the

    Labour Market Estimates (by Sharon Snelgrove)

  • Two Recent New Zealand Publications

  • Research in Progress (University of Auckland)

  • NZAE Information and New Members

2016 NZEP Issue 2 including papers on inequality

The contents of New Zealand Economic Papers, Volume 50, Issue 2, 2016 (available online or by subscription):

  • Food expenditure and GST in New Zealand by Christopher Ball, John Creedy & Michael Ryan
  • Income redistribution and changes in inequality in New Zealand from 2007 to 2011: Alternative distributions and value judgements by John Creedy & Jesse Eedrah
  • Does stadium construction create jobs and boost incomes? The realised economic impacts of sports facilities in New Zealand by Samuel A. Richardson
  • Interpreting inequality measures and changes in inequality by John Creedy
  • The effects of home heating on asthma: evidence from New Zealand by Andrea Kutinova Menclova & Rachel Susan Webb
  • From complete to incomplete (contracts): A survey of the mainstream approach to the theory of privatisation by Paul Walker

Congratulations to recipients of NZAE prizes in 2016

Congratulations to the following recipients of prizes presented at NZAE Conference 2016. More detail on each prize is available at http://www.nzae.org.nz/prizes/

Honours Dissertation Prize Michael Callaghan
New Zealand Economic Policy Prize Sina Mashinchi
NZIER Poster prize – open Andrea Menclova
NZIER Poster prize – student Nazila Alinaghi
People’s choice poster Andrea Menclova
Jan Whitwell Doctoral Yonatan Dinku
Jan Whitwell Doctoral Lan Anh Tong
Jan Whitwell Bachelors / Masters Wilbur Townsend
Seamus Hogan Research Prize Anthony Anyanwu
Statistics NZ prize Lisa Meehan

David Teece awarded Distinguished Fellow of NZAE

TeeceBioProfessor David Teece is Professor of Business Administration and Thomas W. Tusher Chair in Global Business at the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley. He is also Director of the Tusher Center for the Management of Intellectual Capital. As an economist, he is renowned for his research on industrial organisation, technological change and innovation, particularly as it relates to competition policy and intellectual property.

Professor Teece gained a BA and MCom(Hons) (1971) from the University of Canterbury, before completing an MA and PhD (1975) at the University of Pennsylvania. He has held teaching and research positions at University of Canterbury, University of Oxford, Stanford University and the University of Pennsylvania. He holds honorary doctorates from St. Petersburg State University, Copenhagen Business School, Lappeenranta University of Technology (Finland) and the University of Canterbury.

Professor Teece has a long and distinguished research record. His first publication appeared in New Zealand Economic Papers in 1971 (Falvey & Teece, 1971). He has published over 200 books and articles, including articles in American Economic Review, Economic Journal, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Economic Perspectives and Journal of Economic Literature. According to the Science Watch index of Scientific Research in Economics and Business, his Strategic Management Journal paper, ‘Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Management’ was the most cited paper worldwide across these fields in the decade to 2005. He has been recognised by Accenture as one of the world’s top-50 business intellectuals.

Professor Teece’s research includes empirical tests of existing theories, especially in relation to transactions cost economics; new insights into the theory of the firm, such as the dynamic capabilities approach to the determinants of ongoing firm success; and synthesis of ideas from numerous fields to form new theories that are much greater than the sum of the parts.

A brief selection of papers illustrates some of the key intellectual approaches within his work. Professor Teece was one of the first economists to develop the Panzar–Willig concept of economies of scope to show that product diversification by a firm may be efficient if based on common and recurrent use of proprietary know-how (Teece, 1980). In his paper ‘Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Management’ (Teece, Pisano, & Shuen, 1997) (cited over 25,000 times), he analysed the sources and methods of wealth creation and capture by private firms operating in environments of rapid technological change. As in his work on economies of scope, this work emphasised the importance of firms’ proprietary and difficult-to-trade knowledge assets in generating firm wealth. In a paper published in 2007 (Teece, 2007), he emphasises that a firm’s dynamic capabilities – which enable the firm to generate wealth on an ongoing basis – derive from an entrepreneurial approach that sees firms innovate and collaborate with other enterprises and institutions. It is through the resulting ongoing transformation that firms may escape the zero-profit condition so beloved by neo-classical economists. In recent work (Teece, 2014), Professor Teece has returned to a topic that he first visited in the 1980s applying the dynamic capabilities framework to explain the success of multi-national enterprises. At the core of all these contributions is the search for insights about the process of wealth creation at the firm level.

In addition to his prodigious and influential research output, Professor Teece is renowned for his ability to express complex ideas in non-technical language, making his ideas available to a broad public. His ability to think across fields and to relate his ideas to a broad audience has been of considerable use in the field of management consulting. He is Chairman and Principal Executive Officer of Berkeley Research Group, and was Co-Founder of LECG where he was Chairman (1988–2007) and Vice-Chairman (2007–2009).

Despite being based in the United States, David has kept close research, business and philanthropic links to New Zealand. He co-authored a paper in Journal of Economic Literature on New Zealand’s economic reforms (Evans, Grimes, Wilkinson, & Teece, 1996). He is a member of the Editorial Board for New Zealand Economic Papers and is an Honorary Member of LEANZ (Law and Economics Association of New Zealand). In addition, he is Chairman of the University of Canterbury Foundation Board of Trustees, and President of the University of Canterbury Foundation in America. Professor Teece was a co-founder of Kea (Kiwi Expatriates Abroad). In 2013, he became a Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit.

Across his many contributions, Professor David Teece has proved that he has the outstanding credentials required for the award of Distinguished Fellow of the New Zealand Association of Economists.

References

  1. Evans, L., Grimes, A., Wilkinson, B., & Teece, D. (1996). Economic reform in New Zealand 1984-95: The pursuit of efficiency. Journal of Economic Literature, 34(4), 1856–1902.
  2. Falvey, R.E., & Teece, D.J. (1971). The determination of residential section prices in some South Island Centres. New Zealand Economic Papers, 5, 100–106.
  3. Teece, D.J. (1980). Economies of scope and the scope of the enterprise. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 1(3), 223–247.
  4. Teece, D.J., Pisano, G., & Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strategic Management Journal, 18(7), 509–533.
  5. Teece, D.J. (2007). Explicating dynamic capabilities: The nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance. Strategic Management Journal, 28(13), 1319–1350.
  6. Teece, D.J. (2014). A dynamic capabilities-based entrepreneurial theory of the multinational enterprise. Journal of International Business Studies, 45(1), 8–37.

April 2016 AI (#55) includes interviews with Sherwin and Crampton

Asymmetric Info Issue 55 v2 5 April 2016

Contents:

  • Editorial
  • An Interview with Murray Sherwin (by Grant Scobie)
  • The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Eric Crampton)
  • Treasury’s Living Standards Framework (by Bryce Wilkinson)
  • Treasury’s Living Standards Framework – Response to Bryce Wilkinson (by Girol Karacaoglu)
  • Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
  • (Motu) Residential Assimilation of Migrants (by Dave Maré, Jacques Poot and Ceridwyn Roberts)
  • (Motu) Cyclical changes in Workforce Skill and Firm Productivity Measures (by David Maré, Dean Hyslop and Richard Fabling)
  • (Stats New Zealand) New measures of inflation: Introducing the Household Living-costs Price Indexes (HLPIs) (by Alan Bentley)
  • NEW MEMBERS (January, February and early March 2016)
  • Report from GEN
  • Research in Progress (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Transport Economics Knowledge Hub Debate in April

The Ministry of Transport and Transport Economics Knowledge Hub invite you to:

The Transport Economics Hub Debate:

Can New Zealand overcome the competitive disadvantage of being far away from international markets?

YES: Dave Heatley, Wayne Heerdegen, Iain McGlinchy, Nathaniel Robson

NO: Tom Simonson, Ian Duncan, Natalia Fareti, Alec Morrison

Chair: Kirdan Lee

Time and date:  12:30pm to 1:30pm, Tuesday 5 April 2016

Venue:   Ministry of Transport, Level 6, 89 The Terrace, SAS Tower, Wellington

RSVP:   knowledgehub@transport.govt.nz

 

 

 

 

 

First Call for 2016 NZAE Conference Papers

57th New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference
To be held at Auckland University of Technology Auckland
29 June July – 1 July 2016

 

The New Zealand Association of Economists is pleased to announce the Call for Papers for its 57th Annual Conference. Abstracts can be submitted here.

Submitters need to submit an abstract of not more than 250 words of their paper for either an oral presentation or the poster session. Full papers are not required at this stage, but for a paper to be considered eligible for the Statistics New Zealand, New Zealand Economic Policy, or Seamus Hogan prizes, a full paper must be submitted by 13 June.

We encourage individuals to present their research in the poster session. Some research is particularly suited to the visual style of a poster presentation; the poster session can also be suitable for work in progress and speculative research. We particularly welcome student research in the poster session.

Submitters are welcome to submit up to three papers. If we are only able to accept one of the submissions, we will contact presenters to ask which paper they would prefer to include. This limit applies to the number of papers presented by any one person, and not to the number of papers on which he or she is a co-author.

Please note that presenters whose papers are accepted for an oral presentation or poster MUST REGISTER by 16 MAY in order to remain on the programme. After this date, the registration fee is non-refundable.

Important dates:

24 Feb – Abstract portal opens
28 March – Conference registration opens
1 April – Abstracts due
By 25 April – Notification of acceptances
16 May – Registration deadline for presenters
16 May – Deadline for Early-bird registration
13 June – Full papers due (entries for SNZ, NZEP and SH prizes)

Please address conference enquiries to:

Dr Peter Tait
NZAE Organising Committee
Agribusiness and Economics Research Unit
Lincoln University
PO Box 85084
Lincoln, 7647
Phone: 64 3 423 0384
Email: peter.tait@lincoln.ac.nz

OR

Shelley Haring
Conference Administrator
On-Cue Conferences + Events
54 Montgomery Sq.
PO Box 1193
Nelson, 7040
Phone: 64 3 546 6330 ext. 70
Email: shelley@on-cue.co.nz

2016 NZEP Issue 1 special issue on Economics of Savings

The contents of New Zealand Economic Papers, Volume 50, Issue 1, 2016 (available online or by subscription):

  • Introduction to the special issue by Arthur Grimes & Gail Pacheco
  • Intergenerational developments in household saving behaviour by Mark Vink
  • Retirement income policy and national savings by David Law
  • Pension payments and receipts by New Zealand birth cohorts, 1916–1986 by Andrew Coleman
  • KiwiSaver risk indicators by Henk Berkman, Randall Clement & Annie Zhang
  • Hot property in New Zealand: Empirical evidence of housing bubbles in the metropolitan centres by Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Peter C.B. Phillips

Students invited to enter for Seamus Hogan Research Prize

The Seamus Hogan Research Prize is a newly-established award to honour the memory of Seamus Hogan (1962-2015). Seamus was President of the New Zealand Association of Economists when he died, after having served several terms on the Association’s Council. Seamus had recently joined the staff of Victoria University of Wellington, and had taught for many years at the University of Canterbury in his native Christchurch. He was highly regarded by his colleagues and students for his teaching, research, and support for the profession and the goals of the Association. It is because of the time and care he took with his many students that the focus of this prize is student research. His obituary can be found in Asymmetric Information, issue 53, August 2015.

The Seamus Hogan Research Prize is awarded for the best public policy paper written by a student and presented at the annual conference. It is for the amount of $1,000.

CONDITIONS OF ENTRY

The prize is for the best paper on a public policy topic written by a student, and it is awarded at the conference. The award is for the written paper, which will be judged according to its clarity of presentation and communication, its critical application of economics to a topic in public policy, and the appropriate selection of empirical and theoretical tools for addressing the policy question at hand.

Entry to the Seamus Hogan Research Prize is open to persons who at the time of the conference are either enrolled in tertiary study in New Zealand or have completed a tertiary degree in New Zealand in the preceding 12 months. There is no residence requirement.

Entrants must be able to attend and present their paper at the NZAE Conference. The presentation may be either an Oral Presentation or Poster Presentation.

Entrants must comply with Conference Registration deadlines as detailed on the conference website.

Co-authored papers are allowed, and the other authors need not meet the eligibility criteria for the award. However, the entrant should have made a substantial contribution to the research.

Authors must comply with all deadlines for submission of Abstracts and Full Papers as detailed on the conference website. Full Papers for the Seamus Hogan Prize may be due before the Conference, to allow sufficient time for judging.

When registering for the conference, please be sure to indicate that you wish to enter the Seamus Hogan Prize.