NZTA are currently seeking to expand advisory capabilities across the Investment & Finance and Systems Design groups. See attached for more information and/or go directly to www.nzta.govt.nz/careers.
Advisory Group Advertisement for NZTA
Copies of papers made available by the authors for NZAE Conference 2017 are available online.
- An Interview with Prasanna Gai (by Steffen Lippert)
- The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Martin Fukac)
- Experimental Economics? (by Jeremy Clark)
- Economics Education in New Zealand: Allocatively Inefficient? (by Bryce Hartell)
- Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
- NZAE Conference, 12 – 14 July 2017
- Awards presented at NZAE Conference dinner
- Citations for NZAE Life Membership
- Abstract for the David Teece Prize in Industrial Organisation
- Citation for the 2017 Bergstrom Prize
- (Motu) The longer term impacts of job displacement on labour market outcomes (by Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend)
- Report from GEN
- Research in Progress (Massey University)
- 2017 NZAE PhD Student Workshop
- WEAI Conferences, 2018 and beyond
- New Members
Congratulations to Daan Steenkamp, who was awarded the 2017 A. R. Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics for his paper Daan_Steenkamp_dp17-02. The Bergstrom Prize can be awarded every two years and aims to reward the achievement of excellence in econometrics, as evidenced by a research paper in any area of econometrics.
If an asset price contains a ‘bubble’ it will exhibit explosive (i.e. exponential) dynamics. Recently developed tests by Phillips et al. (2015a) and Phillips et al. (2015b) provide an accurate way to gauge whether asset prices are experiencing explosive dynamics, or have done so in the past.
Daan Steenkamp’s paper applies those tests to eleven of the most commonly traded exchange rates at a daily frequency and over a long sample. When measured at a daily frequency, the volatility of exchange rates tends to be high and potentially non-stationary, and there may be a size distortion in the standard tests causing them to over-reject the null that the series is explosive. For this reason, a wild bootstrapping technique is used to compute critical values for statistical interference.
A second contribution of Daan’s paper is to consider the possibility of both positive and negative explosive periods. Currency pairs provide a natural test case in this regard because explosive increases (or collapses) in a foreign currency imply a corresponding collapse (or increase) in the given base currency. Furthermore, the influence of the base currency on the explosive dynamics may be inferred by considering the dynamics of its effective exchange rate, i.e. that currency’s value against a wide basket of foreign currencies.
The results show that bouts of explosiveness in exchange rates against the United States (US) dollar are uncommon at a daily frequency. Periods of explosiveness tend to last for several days but involve only small changes in currency levels. These also usually reverse shortly afterwards.
Second, the dynamics of the US dollar appear to be largely responsible for the results found for the individual currency pairs, as evidenced by a high concordance of their explosiveness with explosiveness in the broad value of the US dollar exchange rate. This result suggests that there are relatively few instances where explosiveness in individual cross-rates reflected country-specific factors. There is also evidence that explosive episodes in currency markets coincide with periods of high market volatility.
In their assessment, the adjudicators Professors Mark Holmes and Bob Reed noted that Daan’s work was “competent analysis based on cutting edge econometric techniques that provide valuable insights.”
Congratulations to the following recipients of prizes presented at NZAE Conference 2017. More detail on each prize is available at http://www.nzae.org.nz/prizes/
|David Teece Prize in Industrial Organisation and Firm Behaviour||Richard Meade|
|New Zealand Economic Policy Prize||Richard Meade|
|NZIER Poster prize – open||Kate Preston|
|NZIER Poster prize – student||Jianhua Duan|
|People’s choice poster||Kate Preston|
|Jan Whitwell Doctoral||Nazila Alinaghi|
|Jan Whitwell Bachelors / Masters||Cameron Hobbs|
|Seamus Hogan Research Prize||Nazila Alinaghi|
|Statistics NZ prize||Richard Fabling and Arthur Grimes|
New Zealand’s small size and distance from major markets are often cited as contributing to lower productivity domestically than in other developed countries. This year’s New Zealand Association of Economists Distinguished Fellow demonstrates that low productivity or diminished quality need not be the outcome if one is situated in New Zealand.
NZAE’s Distinguished Fellow award honours distinguished New Zealand economists for their sustained and outstanding contribution to the development of economics and its applications. It is designed to encourage excellence in economics and to promote the profession of economics in New Zealand.
The 2017 Distinguished Fellow is an economist who most definitely meets these requirements and who has been firmly situated in New Zealand for 20 years. Over that time he has been Professor of Economics both at University of Canterbury and University of Waikato.
Professor John Gibson is currently Professor of Economics at the Waikato Management School. A graduate of Lincoln University, John has a doctorate from Stanford University. His teaching and research interests are in microeconomics with special emphasis on the micro-econometric aspects of development and labour economics. He has been a member of an expert group advising the United Nations Statistical Division on the design and analysis of household survey data.
John’s work includes a large number of publications on topics of central importance to New Zealand and Asia-Pacific. These publications have appeared in top ranked journals globally.
His work on Pacific migrants in New Zealand utilising an administratively determined randomised design (together with co-authors David McKenzie and Steven Stillman) is particularly noteworthy both for its quality and for its importance in learning about migration outcomes.
John has published over 100 articles covering both applied and theoretical economics. His work has appeared in journals such as: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Development Economics, Economic Inquiry, Public Choice, World Development, Economic Journal, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of Health Economics, Economics Letters, and Review of Income and Wealth.
He is one of the top four published authors over the first 50 years of New Zealand Economic Papers. Thus he contributes strongly to domestic economic discourse as well as contributing on an international stage.
According to Google Scholar, John has a total of 5,819 citations, and an h-index of 41. Within the RePEc rankings, he is ranked in the top 3 economists resident in New Zealand and in the top 5% of economists globally according to 37 separate metrics.
One example of John’s meticulous and insightful approach to research is his article with David McKenzie and Steven Stillman “How Important Is Selection? Experimental vs. Non-Experimental Measures of the Income Gains from Migration” that appeared in the Journal of the European Economic Association in 2010.
In this paper, John and co-authors use a randomised lottery of Tongans applying to migrate to New Zealand firstly to derive the (very large) income gains that Tongans receive when they migrate to New Zealand and, secondly, to compare this premium with what may be expected from a simple comparison of differences in per capita GDP and manufacturing wages (which implies under-performance for migrant incomes).
These results are extremely informative in their own right. However the study is distinguished by the surveying of an additional group of workers who did not apply to migrate, then using this extra information to consider methods for dealing with selection bias in the econometric estimates. They find that four of five well-known techniques for dealing with selection bias would have given inaccurate estimates of the income gains from migration.
This paper – and many others that John has participated in – shows that as well as producing novel empirical results, he also contributes at a fundamental methodological level in ways that assist other researchers to improve the quality of their own research.
John has made a sustained and outstanding contribution on the world stage to development economics and related aspects of the discipline. He has also played a major role in supervision of, and co-authorship with, graduate students, and in co-authorship with junior colleagues. This contribution to capability development within New Zealand is an important aspect of John’s work.
Across his many contributions, Professor John Gibson has proved that he has the outstanding credentials required for the award of Distinguished Fellow of the New Zealand Association of Economists.
Mary has made significant contributions to the Association over many years. She was President of NZAE from 2009 to 2011, and a Council member from 2003 to 2013. Mary has played a very active role in organizing the Association’s conferences. In particular, she represented NZAE on the Steering Committee of the 2008 Phillips Symposium, and subsequently acted as Chair of the conference committee. In this role she was instrumental in the transition from managing conferences in-house to using an external conference organizer. Mary arranged for the 2010 conference to use the new Owen Glenn Building at the University of Auckland and, even after leaving the Council, Mary was involved with conference organisation in Auckland in 2014. These major contributions to the Association make Mary a worthy recipient of NZAE Life Membership.
Anthony has made significant contributions to both the Association and the Education Trust over many years. He is the longest-serving member of the current Council, having served for 12 years. In that time, he has taken primary responsibility for the website and contributed to social media initiatives. Over this period, there has been at least one major re-build of the website and several smaller developments, as well as work associated with the separate conference website. Anthony has been Chair of the NZAE Education Trust for much of his tenure on Council. This period has seen a sizeable increase in funds for investment, development of clearer policies and guidelines for the Trust, and a successful re-application by the Trust to the Charities Commission, after changes to the Charities Act in 2005. His contributions to both the Trust and the Council make Anthony a worthy recipient of NZAE Life Membership.
- Introduction to the Special Issue on Advances in Competition Policy and Regulation by Simona Fabrizi, Steffen Lippert & John Panzar
- Competition policy in the global era by Luís Cabral
- Welfare costs of coordinated infrastructure investments: the case of competing transport modes by Richard Meade & Arthur Grimes
- Mixed pricing in monopoly and oligopoly: theory and implications for merger analysis by Tim Hazledine
- Targeted ex post evaluations in a data-poor world by Lilla Csorgo & Harshal Chitale
- How are industry concentration and risk factors related? Evidence from Brazilian stock markets by Rogério Mazali
- Brand-level diversion ratios from product-level data by Lydia Cheung
- An Interview with Girol Karacaoglu (by Joey Au)
- The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Kirdan Lees)
- (Ir)rationality and the Case for Behavioural Economics (by Jan Feld)
- Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
- (Motu) STEM Graduates and Productivity (by David C Maré, Trinh Le, Richard Fabling and Nathan Chappell)
- (Stats New Zealand) Statistics New Zealand’s household surveys programme (by Patrick Ongley)
- Report from GEN
- A R Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics 2017
- Research in Progress (Auckland University of Technology)
- NEW MEMBERS (2017, through to 15 March)
- Commodity trade between the US and Korea and the J-curve effect by Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, Jia Xu & Sujata Saha
- Estimating the willingness to pay for Warmer and Drier Homes by John Gibson, Riccardo Scarpa & Halahingano Rohorua
- Educational mismatches and earnings in the New Zealand labour market by Jian Z. Yeo & Sholeh A. Maani
- Stability of an exponential distribution for New Zealand taxable personal income by R. John Irwin & Timothy C. Irwin
- Labour supply in New Zealand and the 2010 tax and transfer changes by John Creedy & Penny Mok
- The source of wealth by Elizabeth Webster
- A note on inequality-preserving distributional changes by John Creedy
The David Teece Prize in Industrial Organisation and Firm Behaviour is a newly-established award made possible through the generous support of the Berkeley Research Group.
The prize will be awarded to the paper presented at the New Zealand Association of Economists annual conference that is deemed to make the best contribution to the study of industrial organisation and/or firm behaviour. Papers need not be applied to New Zealand, but preference will be given to those that demonstrate their results are relevant for New Zealand.
This $2,500 award is sponsored by Berkeley Research Group.
CONDITIONS OF ENTRY
- Any paper that contributes to industrial organisation and/or firm behaviour may be entered in this competition.
- Paper submission must meet all of the deadlines for abstract and full paper submission in order to remain eligible.
- Entrants must be able to attend and present their paper at the NZAE Conference. The presentation may be either an Oral Presentation or Poster Presentation.
- When submitting the abstract also select entry into this competition through the conference website.
- It is the written paper that will be judged based on the following criteria: relevance to the fields of industrial organisation and/or firm behaviour; the quality of economic analysis; and relevance to New Zealand.
- An Interview with Suzi Kerr (by Lew Evans)
- The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Ganesh Nana)
- NZIER Economics Award for 2016 John Creedy
- NZAE Conference 2016 Attendee Survey
- NZIER Economics Award Acceptance John Creedy
- NZAE PhD Student Workshop 2017
- (Motu) Income or Consumption: Which Better Predicts Subjective Wellbeing? (by Thomas Carver and Arthur Grimes)
- WEAI Conferences, 2017 and 2018
- Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
- GEN Update
- A R Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics 2017
- Research in Progress (University of Otago)
- NEW MEMBERS (mid-July to mid-September 2016)
- Stata advert
The NZAE are pleased to announce the following keynote speakesr at their 2017 Conference, held 12-14th July 2017 at Victoria University’s Rutherford House.
Details including Programme and Paper Submission can be found at the dedicated NZAE Conference site.
2017 Conference important dates:
- Wednesday 22nd February First notice of conference sent out
- Wednesday 22nd February Portal for abstract submissions opens
- Friday 24th March Final notice of conference sent out
- Monday 27th March Conference registration opens
- Monday 3rd April Abstracts Due
- By Monday 24th April Notification of acceptances
- Monday 15th May Registration deadline for presenters
- Monday 15th May Deadline for early-bird registration
- Monday 12th June Full papers due for entries to prizes
- Wednesday 12th July Conference start
- Friday 14th July Conference end
- Introduction to NZEP Special Issue by Gary Hawke
- Fifty years of New Zealand Economic Papers: 1966 to 2015 by Robert A. Buckle & John Creedy
- Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand’s post-Second World War business cycles by Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott
- Does New Zealand economics have a useful past? The example of trade policy and economic development by Geoffrey Brooke, Anthony Endres & Alan Rogers
- Eighty years of urban development in New Zealand: impacts of economic and natural factors by Arthur Grimes, Eyal Apatov, Larissa Lutchman & Anna Robinson
- Inequality in New Zealand 1983/84 to 2012/13 by Christopher Ball & John Creedy
- New Zealand’s experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations by Michelle Lewis & C. John McDermott
- Book review: A few hares to chase: the life and economics of Bill Phillips, by Alan Bollard, reviewed by Nicholas Barr
Copies of papers made available by the authors for NZAE Conference 2016 are available online.
An Interview with Ilan Noy (by John Creedy)
The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Judy Kavanagh)
NZAE Membership Survey 2015
NZAE Conference Keynote Speaker Abstracts
NZAE Conference Photos
Awards Presented at NZAE Conference 2016
Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
(Motu) The Impact of the 90-day Trial Policy
(by Nathan Chappell and Isabelle Sin)
WEAI Conferences, 2017 and beyond
GEN Annual Conference 2016
(Stats New Zealand) New Information in the
Labour Market Estimates (by Sharon Snelgrove)
Two Recent New Zealand Publications
Research in Progress (University of Auckland)
NZAE Information and New Members
- Food expenditure and GST in New Zealand by Christopher Ball, John Creedy & Michael Ryan
- Income redistribution and changes in inequality in New Zealand from 2007 to 2011: Alternative distributions and value judgements by John Creedy & Jesse Eedrah
- Does stadium construction create jobs and boost incomes? The realised economic impacts of sports facilities in New Zealand by Samuel A. Richardson
- Interpreting inequality measures and changes in inequality by John Creedy
- The effects of home heating on asthma: evidence from New Zealand by Andrea Kutinova Menclova & Rachel Susan Webb
- From complete to incomplete (contracts): A survey of the mainstream approach to the theory of privatisation by Paul Walker
Congratulations to the following recipients of prizes presented at NZAE Conference 2016. More detail on each prize is available at http://www.nzae.org.nz/prizes/
|Honours Dissertation Prize||Michael Callaghan|
|New Zealand Economic Policy Prize||Sina Mashinchi|
|NZIER Poster prize – open||Andrea Menclova|
|NZIER Poster prize – student||Nazila Alinaghi|
|People’s choice poster||Andrea Menclova|
|Jan Whitwell Doctoral||Yonatan Dinku|
|Jan Whitwell Doctoral||Lan Anh Tong|
|Jan Whitwell Bachelors / Masters||Wilbur Townsend|
|Seamus Hogan Research Prize||Anthony Anyanwu|
|Statistics NZ prize||Lisa Meehan|