The intention of this blog is to highlight economists’ work and provide material to support education and general understanding, especially as it relates to economics in New Zealand. It is not a forum for advocacy (other than better use of economics). Posts are categorised as Events, Insights or NZAE News (includes subcategories). Posts are also tagged with the JEL Classification and/or as considered appropriate (see list below). Authors are generally Councillors of the NZAE. Anyone can provide comments. Any views expressed are not necessarily those of the NZAE.
A selection of forthcoming presentations/seminars/conferences includes:
- “Beyond Social Investment” Summit, 8 September 2017, Auckland University
- “Long-run indicators of sustainable development” seminar by Nick Hanley of the University St Andrews, 22 September, Otago University (Dunedin)
- “Inter-industry Analysis of Structure and Performance: Evidence from New Zealand” seminar by Rashid Ameer of Institute of the Pacific United, 4 October 2017, Massey University (Palmerston North)
- “Towards a Framework for Macroprudential Policy seminar, Professor Prasanna Gai of Auckland University, 25 October 2017, The Treasury (Wellington)
These and further events are reported within individual websites listed under General Presentations
Copies of papers made available by the authors for NZAE Conference 2017 are available online.
Congratulations to Daan Steenkamp, who was awarded the 2017 A. R. Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics for his paper Daan_Steenkamp_dp17-02. The Bergstrom Prize can be awarded every two years and aims to reward the achievement of excellence in econometrics, as evidenced by a research paper in any area of econometrics.
If an asset price contains a ‘bubble’ it will exhibit explosive (i.e. exponential) dynamics. Recently developed tests by Phillips et al. (2015a) and Phillips et al. (2015b) provide an accurate way to gauge whether asset prices are experiencing explosive dynamics, or have done so in the past.
Daan Steenkamp’s paper applies those tests to eleven of the most commonly traded exchange rates at a daily frequency and over a long sample. When measured at a daily frequency, the volatility of exchange rates tends to be high and potentially non-stationary, and there may be a size distortion in the standard tests causing them to over-reject the null that the series is explosive. For this reason, a wild bootstrapping technique is used to compute critical values for statistical interference.
A second contribution of Daan’s paper is to consider the possibility of both positive and negative explosive periods. Currency pairs provide a natural test case in this regard because explosive increases (or collapses) in a foreign currency imply a corresponding collapse (or increase) in the given base currency. Furthermore, the influence of the base currency on the explosive dynamics may be inferred by considering the dynamics of its effective exchange rate, i.e. that currency’s value against a wide basket of foreign currencies.
The results show that bouts of explosiveness in exchange rates against the United States (US) dollar are uncommon at a daily frequency. Periods of explosiveness tend to last for several days but involve only small changes in currency levels. These also usually reverse shortly afterwards.
Second, the dynamics of the US dollar appear to be largely responsible for the results found for the individual currency pairs, as evidenced by a high concordance of their explosiveness with explosiveness in the broad value of the US dollar exchange rate. This result suggests that there are relatively few instances where explosiveness in individual cross-rates reflected country-specific factors. There is also evidence that explosive episodes in currency markets coincide with periods of high market volatility.
In their assessment, the adjudicators Professors Mark Holmes and Bob Reed noted that Daan’s work was “competent analysis based on cutting edge econometric techniques that provide valuable insights.”
Congratulations to the following recipients of prizes presented at NZAE Conference 2017. More detail on each prize is available at http://www.nzae.org.nz/prizes/
|David Teece Prize in Industrial Organisation and Firm Behaviour||Richard Meade|
|New Zealand Economic Policy Prize||Richard Meade|
|NZIER Poster prize – open||Kate Preston|
|NZIER Poster prize – student||Jianhua Duan|
|People’s choice poster||Kate Preston|
|Jan Whitwell Doctoral||Nazila Alinaghi|
|Jan Whitwell Bachelors / Masters||Cameron Hobbs|
|Seamus Hogan Research Prize||Nazila Alinaghi|
|Statistics NZ prize||Richard Fabling and Arthur Grimes|
New Zealand’s small size and distance from major markets are often cited as contributing to lower productivity domestically than in other developed countries. This year’s New Zealand Association of Economists Distinguished Fellow demonstrates that low productivity or diminished quality need not be the outcome if one is situated in New Zealand.
NZAE’s Distinguished Fellow award honours distinguished New Zealand economists for their sustained and outstanding contribution to the development of economics and its applications. It is designed to encourage excellence in economics and to promote the profession of economics in New Zealand.
The 2017 Distinguished Fellow is an economist who most definitely meets these requirements and who has been firmly situated in New Zealand for 20 years. Over that time he has been Professor of Economics both at University of Canterbury and University of Waikato.
Professor John Gibson is currently Professor of Economics at the Waikato Management School. A graduate of Lincoln University, John has a doctorate from Stanford University. His teaching and research interests are in microeconomics with special emphasis on the micro-econometric aspects of development and labour economics. He has been a member of an expert group advising the United Nations Statistical Division on the design and analysis of household survey data.
John’s work includes a large number of publications on topics of central importance to New Zealand and Asia-Pacific. These publications have appeared in top ranked journals globally.
His work on Pacific migrants in New Zealand utilising an administratively determined randomised design (together with co-authors David McKenzie and Steven Stillman) is particularly noteworthy both for its quality and for its importance in learning about migration outcomes.
John has published over 100 articles covering both applied and theoretical economics. His work has appeared in journals such as: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Development Economics, Economic Inquiry, Public Choice, World Development, Economic Journal, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of Health Economics, Economics Letters, and Review of Income and Wealth.
He is one of the top four published authors over the first 50 years of New Zealand Economic Papers. Thus he contributes strongly to domestic economic discourse as well as contributing on an international stage.
According to Google Scholar, John has a total of 5,819 citations, and an h-index of 41. Within the RePEc rankings, he is ranked in the top 3 economists resident in New Zealand and in the top 5% of economists globally according to 37 separate metrics.
One example of John’s meticulous and insightful approach to research is his article with David McKenzie and Steven Stillman “How Important Is Selection? Experimental vs. Non-Experimental Measures of the Income Gains from Migration” that appeared in the Journal of the European Economic Association in 2010.
In this paper, John and co-authors use a randomised lottery of Tongans applying to migrate to New Zealand firstly to derive the (very large) income gains that Tongans receive when they migrate to New Zealand and, secondly, to compare this premium with what may be expected from a simple comparison of differences in per capita GDP and manufacturing wages (which implies under-performance for migrant incomes).
These results are extremely informative in their own right. However the study is distinguished by the surveying of an additional group of workers who did not apply to migrate, then using this extra information to consider methods for dealing with selection bias in the econometric estimates. They find that four of five well-known techniques for dealing with selection bias would have given inaccurate estimates of the income gains from migration.
This paper – and many others that John has participated in – shows that as well as producing novel empirical results, he also contributes at a fundamental methodological level in ways that assist other researchers to improve the quality of their own research.
John has made a sustained and outstanding contribution on the world stage to development economics and related aspects of the discipline. He has also played a major role in supervision of, and co-authorship with, graduate students, and in co-authorship with junior colleagues. This contribution to capability development within New Zealand is an important aspect of John’s work.
Across his many contributions, Professor John Gibson has proved that he has the outstanding credentials required for the award of Distinguished Fellow of the New Zealand Association of Economists.
Mary has made significant contributions to the Association over many years. She was President of NZAE from 2009 to 2011, and a Council member from 2003 to 2013. Mary has played a very active role in organizing the Association’s conferences. In particular, she represented NZAE on the Steering Committee of the 2008 Phillips Symposium, and subsequently acted as Chair of the conference committee. In this role she was instrumental in the transition from managing conferences in-house to using an external conference organizer. Mary arranged for the 2010 conference to use the new Owen Glenn Building at the University of Auckland and, even after leaving the Council, Mary was involved with conference organisation in Auckland in 2014. These major contributions to the Association make Mary a worthy recipient of NZAE Life Membership.
Anthony has made significant contributions to both the Association and the Education Trust over many years. He is the longest-serving member of the current Council, having served for 12 years. In that time, he has taken primary responsibility for the website and contributed to social media initiatives. Over this period, there has been at least one major re-build of the website and several smaller developments, as well as work associated with the separate conference website. Anthony has been Chair of the NZAE Education Trust for much of his tenure on Council. This period has seen a sizeable increase in funds for investment, development of clearer policies and guidelines for the Trust, and a successful re-application by the Trust to the Charities Commission, after changes to the Charities Act in 2005. His contributions to both the Trust and the Council make Anthony a worthy recipient of NZAE Life Membership.
William Strange – The Changing Economies of Cities: Real Estate Markets in an Uneven World
Tue 11 Jul 2017
Level 5, The Treasury, 1 The Terrace, Wellington
Details including RSVP here
- Introduction to the Special Issue on Advances in Competition Policy and Regulation by Simona Fabrizi, Steffen Lippert & John Panzar
- Competition policy in the global era by Luís Cabral
- Welfare costs of coordinated infrastructure investments: the case of competing transport modes by Richard Meade & Arthur Grimes
- Mixed pricing in monopoly and oligopoly: theory and implications for merger analysis by Tim Hazledine
- Targeted ex post evaluations in a data-poor world by Lilla Csorgo & Harshal Chitale
- How are industry concentration and risk factors related? Evidence from Brazilian stock markets by Rogério Mazali
- Brand-level diversion ratios from product-level data by Lydia Cheung
- An Interview with Girol Karacaoglu (by Joey Au)
- The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Kirdan Lees)
- (Ir)rationality and the Case for Behavioural Economics (by Jan Feld)
- Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
- (Motu) STEM Graduates and Productivity (by David C Maré, Trinh Le, Richard Fabling and Nathan Chappell)
- (Stats New Zealand) Statistics New Zealand’s household surveys programme (by Patrick Ongley)
- Report from GEN
- A R Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics 2017
- Research in Progress (Auckland University of Technology)
- NEW MEMBERS (2017, through to 15 March)
The Ministry of Transport and Transport Economics Knowledge Hub invite you to:
The costs and benefits of urban development: Theory and evidence by Peter Nunns
Transport that serves urban and economic development by Chris Parker
Time and date: 10:00am to 11:30am, Friday 19 May 2017
Venue: Grant Thornton Building, Level 13, 215 Lambton Quay, Wellington
RSVP: email@example.com (by Monday 15 May 2017)
The costs and benefits of urban development: Theory and evidence
An important question for urban planning is where and when there is a case to limit development to manage the potential for market failure. However, there have been relatively few attempts to comprehensively compare the costs of restricting development with the various positive and negative externalities that are managed by doing so. This paper attempts to fill that gap. In doing so, it identifies how it would be possible to raise wellbeing by enabling more competitive, responsive urban development markets. To close, it asks whether alternative policy mechanisms are needed to efficiently enable urban development while appropriately addressing market failure.
Transport that serves urban and economic development
Chris will briefly cover his earlier research on how to generalise transport economic appraisals to capture their effects on land use through urban and economic development. He’ll first frame this up with Coase’s critique against the marginalist approach to economics. Finally he’ll explain how and why the transport sector should broaden its horizons and deeply engage with any reforms associated with the Productivity Commission’s Better Urban Planning inquiry.
About the speakers
Peter is Principal Economist at MRCagney, a transport and urban planning consultancy with offices in Auckland, Brisbane, and Melbourne. His current work includes development of business cases for several major transport projects in Auckland, including the Northwestern Busway and the 2018-2028 cycling programme, and the implementation of the National Policy Statement on Urban Development Capacity.
Chris is Principal Advisor at Treasury covering housing and building environments. He was Chief Economist at Auckland Council, and before then specialised in transport economics and appraisal when at NZIER and Hyder Consulting.
- Commodity trade between the US and Korea and the J-curve effect by Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, Jia Xu & Sujata Saha
- Estimating the willingness to pay for Warmer and Drier Homes by John Gibson, Riccardo Scarpa & Halahingano Rohorua
- Educational mismatches and earnings in the New Zealand labour market by Jian Z. Yeo & Sholeh A. Maani
- Stability of an exponential distribution for New Zealand taxable personal income by R. John Irwin & Timothy C. Irwin
- Labour supply in New Zealand and the 2010 tax and transfer changes by John Creedy & Penny Mok
- The source of wealth by Elizabeth Webster
- A note on inequality-preserving distributional changes by John Creedy
The David Teece Prize in Industrial Organisation and Firm Behaviour is a newly-established award made possible through the generous support of the Berkeley Research Group.
The prize will be awarded to the paper presented at the New Zealand Association of Economists annual conference that is deemed to make the best contribution to the study of industrial organisation and/or firm behaviour. Papers need not be applied to New Zealand, but preference will be given to those that demonstrate their results are relevant for New Zealand.
This $2,500 award is sponsored by Berkeley Research Group.
CONDITIONS OF ENTRY
- Any paper that contributes to industrial organisation and/or firm behaviour may be entered in this competition.
- Paper submission must meet all of the deadlines for abstract and full paper submission in order to remain eligible.
- Entrants must be able to attend and present their paper at the NZAE Conference. The presentation may be either an Oral Presentation or Poster Presentation.
- When submitting the abstract also select entry into this competition through the conference website.
- It is the written paper that will be judged based on the following criteria: relevance to the fields of industrial organisation and/or firm behaviour; the quality of economic analysis; and relevance to New Zealand.
- An Interview with Suzi Kerr (by Lew Evans)
- The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Ganesh Nana)
- NZIER Economics Award for 2016 John Creedy
- NZAE Conference 2016 Attendee Survey
- NZIER Economics Award Acceptance John Creedy
- NZAE PhD Student Workshop 2017
- (Motu) Income or Consumption: Which Better Predicts Subjective Wellbeing? (by Thomas Carver and Arthur Grimes)
- WEAI Conferences, 2017 and 2018
- Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
- GEN Update
- A R Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics 2017
- Research in Progress (University of Otago)
- NEW MEMBERS (mid-July to mid-September 2016)
- Stata advert
CALL FOR PAPERS
8TH CONFERENCE ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
CONFERENCE: 20 & 21 April 2017 PHD SYMPOSIUM: 19 April 2017
You are invited to submit papers for presentation at the 8th Conference on Financial Markets and Corporate Governance to be held on Thursday, 20th and Friday, 21st April 2017 at the Victoria Business School, Rutherford House, Bunny Street, Wellington.
The theme for the conference is Information and Capital Markets and papers on all aspects of Corporate Governance, Financial Reporting, Capital Markets, Corporate Finance, Investments and Funds Management, Emerging Markets, and related areas are welcome. The deadline for submissions is 28 November 2016.
CONFERENCE KEYNOTE SPEAKERS
|Professor Katherine Schipper
Thomas F. Keller Professor of Accounting
Fuqua School of Business
Professor of Accounting
UQ Business School
University of Queensland
|Professor Richard Roll
Linde Institute Professor of Finance,
Division of Humanities and Social Sciences
Commonwealth Bank Chair in Finance
School of Banking and Finance
University of New South Wales
SPECIAL CONFERENCE ISSUE PACIFIC BASIN FINANCE JOURNAL
Pacific Basin Finance Journal will run a special conference issue of the journal and all presenters at the conference are invited to consider submitting their papers to the special issue. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, published by Elsevier, provides a specialised forum for the publication of academic research on capital markets.
Accounting Research Journal is offering an award of AUD1,000 for the best paper presented at the conference or symposium by an emerging scholar.
Securities Research Centre of Asia-Pacific (SIRCA) is offering an award of AUD1,000 for the best paper presented at the conference employing SIRCA data products.
The conference will be preceded by a PhD symposium on Wednesday, 19 April 2017. The symposium will provide PhD students with the opportunity to present their proposal or a working paper and receive expert feedback on their academic work. Students may submit working papers in the same subject areas as covered by the conference.
The conference and PhD symposium are being hosted by Victoria University of Wellington (School of Accounting and Commercial Law, School of Economics and Finance, Centre for Accounting, Governance and Taxation Research), in conjunction with the Department of Banking and Finance, Monash Business School, Monash University, and La Trobe Business School, La Trobe University.
Further information on submission of papers and all other aspects of the conference and PhD symposium is available at: http://www.victoria.ac.nz/fmcg-2017
The New Zealand Association of Economists is pleased to introduce its first PhD Student Workshop in Economics. At this workshop, PhD students have the opportunity to present their work in progress in a friendly environment and receive feedback from academics and peers. In doing so, students will meet members of the broader New Zealand Economics community. As well as networking with other PhD students, there may also be the opportunity to meet senior Economists and discuss career options with a postgraduate degree.
Students will not be able to present the same workshop paper at an oral session at the NZAE conference which takes place later that week. However, they will be strongly encouraged to present their workshop paper concurrently as a poster in the main conference – and present a revised version in an oral session in subsequent years.
For whom: PhD students in Economics who are either New Zealand-based or are New Zealand students studying abroad. Preference will be given to PhD students in the first two years of their studies who register for the NZAE conference.
When: July 11th, 2017
Where: RBNZ, Wellington
A call for papers will be sent out in February 2017.
The NZAE are pleased to announce the following keynote speakesr at their 2017 Conference, held 12-14th July 2017 at Victoria University’s Rutherford House.
Details including Programme and Paper Submission can be found at the dedicated NZAE Conference site.
2017 Conference important dates:
- Wednesday 22nd February First notice of conference sent out
- Wednesday 22nd February Portal for abstract submissions opens
- Friday 24th March Final notice of conference sent out
- Monday 27th March Conference registration opens
- Monday 3rd April Abstracts Due
- By Monday 24th April Notification of acceptances
- Monday 15th May Registration deadline for presenters
- Monday 15th May Deadline for early-bird registration
- Monday 12th June Full papers due for entries to prizes
- Wednesday 12th July Conference start
- Friday 14th July Conference end
- Introduction to NZEP Special Issue by Gary Hawke
- Fifty years of New Zealand Economic Papers: 1966 to 2015 by Robert A. Buckle & John Creedy
- Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand’s post-Second World War business cycles by Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott
- Does New Zealand economics have a useful past? The example of trade policy and economic development by Geoffrey Brooke, Anthony Endres & Alan Rogers
- Eighty years of urban development in New Zealand: impacts of economic and natural factors by Arthur Grimes, Eyal Apatov, Larissa Lutchman & Anna Robinson
- Inequality in New Zealand 1983/84 to 2012/13 by Christopher Ball & John Creedy
- New Zealand’s experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations by Michelle Lewis & C. John McDermott
- Book review: A few hares to chase: the life and economics of Bill Phillips, by Alan Bollard, reviewed by Nicholas Barr
Copies of papers made available by the authors for NZAE Conference 2016 are available online.