Canterbury scientific integrity workshop 26-Oct-18

There is more and more evidence that findings from many scientific studies cannot be reproduced, casting doubt on the reliability of these studies. This will be discussed at a ‘Reproducibility and Integrity in Scientific Research’ workshop, University of Canterbury, October 26, 2018. Registration details at https://blogs.canterbury.ac.nz/intercom/2018/09/21/workshop-on-reproducibility-and-integrity-in-scientific-research/.

Aug 2018 AI (#62) includes recent awards and photos

Asymmetric Information Issue No. 62

Contents

  • Editorial
  • An interview with Paul Conway (by John Yeabsley)
  • The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Christina Leung)
  • NZIER Economics Award 2018 Citation
  • NZAE Conference 2018 Awards
  • NZAE Conference 2018 Photos
  • Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
  • GEN 2018 Annual Conference Notification
  • Environmental-Economic Accounting at Stats NZ
  • Creedy on Corden
  • WEAI Conferences, Save the Dates
  • 29th Australian & New Zealand Econometric Study Group (ANZESG) Meeting
  • NEW MEMBERS (for 2018 up to 1 August 2018)
  • The A R Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics, 2019

2018 NZEP Issue 2 includes whether state ownership is detrimental to performance

The contents of New Zealand Economic Papers, Volume 52, Issue 2, 2018 (available online or by subscription):

  • The fall (and rise) of labour share in New Zealand by Benjamin Bridgman & Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy
  • Business cycle accounting for New Zealand by Thakshila Gunaratna & Robert Kirkby
  • Artwork characteristics and prices in the New Zealand secondary art market, 1988–2011 by John Forster & Helen Higgs
  • New Zealand State-owned enterprises: is state-ownership detrimental to firm performance? by Kenny Ka Yin Chan, Li Chen & Norman Wong
  • Income effects and the elasticity of taxable income by John Creedy, Norman Gemmell & Josh Teng
  • The economists and New Zealand population: problems and policies 1900–1980s by Geoffrey T. F. Brooke, Anthony M. Endres & Alan J. Rogers
  • The effect of public funding on research output: the New Zealand Marsden Fund by Jason Gush, Adam Jaffe, Victoria Larsen & Athene Laws
  • Citation for John Gibson to mark his Distinguished Fellow Award by the New Zealand Association of Economists by Arthur Grimes

Ralph Lattimore elected NZAE Life Member

Ralph has been a longstanding member of the NZAE, including serving on the Council from 2003-2007. He was actively involved in proposing and furthering several initiatives which now a core part of the NZAE. Life membership was a particular push by Ralph, and he played a role in celebrating the early workers for NZAE Distinguished Fellows. Ralph was involved in the drive to set up a form of “lifetime achievement awards” to complement the annual Economist of the Year. He also wrote citations for several [Peter Lloyd and Brian Easton]. In terms of his contributions to the NZ economics profession more widely, Ralph along with Gary Hawke was keen to record our history, both economic and of the early economists. This had various aspects, but included their joint history of agriculture [Hawke & Lattimore (1999) Visionaries, Farmers & Markets: An Economic History of New Zealand Agriculture], their work on the early days of economics as a discipline [Hawke & Lattimore (2002) Scoping the History of Economics in New Zealand] plus of course the successive editions of the short macroeconomic history of NZ that started as A Briefing on the NZ Economy with Paul Dalziel.

Housing Unaffordability special issue call for papers

Housing Unaffordability: An International Economic Problem

Guest Editors:
Peter Phillips peter.phillips@yale.edu
Ryan Greenway-McGrevy r.mcgrevy@auckland.ac.nz

Housing has become increasingly expensive in many urban centres around the world, creating a global economic problem with no easy policy solutions. Housing unaffordability has a pervasive influence on many aspects of economic life. It impacts intergenerational equity, affects retirement decisions, labour mobility and immigration, and raises major policy challenges at both local and national government levels.

This Special Issue of New Zealand Economic Papers will be devoted to addressing these questions using evidence based economic analysis. We welcome research on all aspects of this global economic problem, including its causes, consequences, and policy responses, as well as methodological approaches to its study and empirical analysis.

Ranking: Australian Business Deans Council (ABDC) Journal Quality List – B ranking.

Submission: via the online portal at https://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rnzp

Please indicate that your paper is meant for the special issue on “Housing Unaffordability” during the submission process.
Selection of papers for the special issue will follow peer review.

Availability: New Zealand Economic Papers is a fully peer-reviewed scholarly journal published by leading international publishers Taylor & Francis (under the Routledge imprint) on behalf of the New Zealand Association of Economists.
The journal is indexed in leading international databases including EconLit, ABI/Inform and EBSCO.

Submission deadline: 31 March 2019

NZEP Call for papers Jun18

Apr 2018 AI (#61) includes research work at AUT

Asymmetric Information Issue No. 61 

Contents

  • Editorial
  • An interview with Leo Krippner (by John Yeabsley)
  • The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Ronald Peters)
  • Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
  • Obituaries: The Passing Parade
  • WEAI Conferences, Save the Dates
  • Introducing … The New Zealand Work Research Institute at AUT
  • (Motu) Retooling the Emissions Trading Scheme to ‘Decarbonise’ NZ (by Suzi Kerr, Catherine Leining, Joanna Silver, Phil Brown, Nigel Brunel, Sandra Cortes-Acosta, Stuart Frazer, Adrian Macey, Guy Salmon, and Paul Young)
  • Meanwhile … Activities of Possible Interest
  • NEW MEMBERS (for 2018 up to 1 April 2018)
  • Research in Progress (University of Canterbury)

NZAE Conference 2018 abstracts due 2-Apr

THE NEW ZEALAND ASSOCIATION OF ECONOMISTS IS PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE A CALL FOR PAPERS FOR ITS 59TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE.

To be held at Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand on 27, 28 and 29 June 2018.

Please see attached detailed information re:
1. “Last Call for Papers” 59th Annual Conference
2. “Call for Papers” Symposium on Wellbeing
3. “NZAE PhD Student workshop, 2018”
nzae2018_last_call_for_papers

General presentations in Feb-Apr 2018 include

A selection of forthcoming presentations/seminars/conferences includes the following. These and further events are reported within individual websites listed under General Presentations.

2018 NZEP Issue 1 includes question on Kiwisaver net wealth effect

The contents of New Zealand Economic Papers, Volume 52, Issue 1, 2018 (available online or by subscription):

  • KiwiSaver and the accumulation of net wealth by David Law & Grant M. Scobie
  • Analysing the extent and effects of occupational regulation in New Zealand by Simon James Greenwood & Andrea Kutinova Menclova
  • The demand for imported oil: New Zealand’s post-deregulation experience by Mohammad Jaforullah & Alan King
  • Behavioural heterogeneity in the New Zealand stock market by Bart Frijns & Ivan Indriawan
  • Collateral crises and unemployment by Eric Tong
  • Treasury’s refreshed views on New Zealand’s economic strategy: a review article by Paul Dalziel & Caroline Saunders

Len Bayliss passes away

Len Bayliss passed away January 19, 2018 at Parkwood Lodge, Waikanae, aged 90 years. Len was instrumental in the formation of the NZAE and has been a Life Member of the NZAE for many years.

Reports and reflections on Len’s contribution to NZ economics is available as follows:

  • 2005 citation at the time Len was elected a NZAE Life Member
  • 2011 summary of the early NZAE years, by Frank Holmes and assisted by Len Bayliss and Jack McFaull
  • 2013 interview with Len by Michael Reddell
  • And reflections by Michael Reddell on news of Len’s passing 

2017 NZEP Issue 3 includes NZ business cycle, public debt and firm productivity

The contents of New Zealand Economic Papers, Volume 51, Issue 3, 2017 (available online or by subscription):

  • On the robustness of stylised business cycle facts for contemporary New Zealand by Viv B. Hall, Peter Thomson & Stuart McKelvie
  • Price-setting behaviour in New Zealand by Miles Parker
  • Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects by John Creedy & Grant Scobie
  • KiwiSaver: an evaluation of a new retirement savings scheme by David Law, Lisa Meehan & Grant M. Scobie
  • The effect of the price or rental cost of housing on family size: a theoretical analysis with reference to New Zealand by Mimi Liu & Jeremy Clark
  • Firm productivity growth and skill by David C. Maré, Dean R. Hyslop & Richard Fabling
  • Citation for David Teece to mark his Distinguished Fellow award by the New Zealand Association of Economists by Arthur Grimes

Dec 2017 AI (#60) includes a value of sunshine

Asymmetric Information Issue No. 60 

Contents

  • Editorial
  • An interview with Len Cook (by John Yeabsley)
  • The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Bronwyn Croxson)
  • WEAI Conferences, 2018 and 2019
  • Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
  • (Motu) Valuing Sunshine (by David Fleming, Arthur Grimes, Laurent Lebreton, David C. Maré, and Peter Nunns)
  • Changes to the Retail Trade Survey (Statistics NZ)
  • NEW MEMBERS (mid-July to mid-September 2017)
  • Research in Progress (Lincoln University)

NZAE Conference 2018 early information

See dedicated conference website for more detail

Title: NZAE Conference 2018
Location: Sir Paul Reeves Building at AUT, Mayoral Drive, Auckland
Description: Annual 3-day NZAE Conference
Start Date: 2018-06-27
Start Time: 08:00
End Date: 2018-06-29
End Time: 13:30

Conference important dates:

  • Wednesday 21st February First notice of conference sent out
  • Wednesday 21st February Portal for abstract submissions opens
  • Friday 23rd March Final notice of conference sent out
  • Monday 26th March Conference registration opens
  • Monday 2nd April Abstracts Due
  • By Monday 23rd April Notification of acceptances
  • Monday 14th May Registration deadline for presenters
  • Monday 14th May Deadline for early-bird registration
  • Monday 11th June Full papers due for entries to prizes
  • Wednesday 27th June Conference start
  • Friday 29th June Conference end

Conference keynotes (including links):

General presentations in Sep-Oct 2017 include

A selection of forthcoming presentations/seminars/conferences includes:

  • Beyond Social Investment” Summit, 8 September 2017, Auckland University
  • “Long-run indicators of sustainable development” seminar by Nick Hanley of the University St Andrews, 22 September, Otago University (Dunedin)
  • “Inter-industry Analysis of Structure and Performance: Evidence from New Zealand” seminar by Rashid Ameer of Institute of the Pacific United, 4 October 2017, Massey University (Palmerston North)
  • “Towards a Framework for Macroprudential Policy seminar, Professor Prasanna Gai of Auckland University, 25 October 2017, The Treasury (Wellington)

These and further events are reported within individual websites listed under General Presentations

August 2017 AI (#59) includes interview with Gai

Asymmetric Information Issue No. 59

Contents

  • Editorial
  • An Interview with Prasanna Gai (by Steffen Lippert)
  • The ‘Five Minute Interview’ (Martin Fukac)
  • Experimental Economics? (by Jeremy Clark)
  • Economics Education in New Zealand: Allocatively Inefficient? (by Bryce Hartell)
  • Blogwatch (by Paul Walker)
  • NZAE Conference, 12 – 14 July 2017
  • Awards presented at NZAE Conference dinner
  • Citations for NZAE Life Membership
  • Abstract for the David Teece Prize in Industrial Organisation
  • Citation for the 2017 Bergstrom Prize
  • (Motu) The longer term impacts of job displacement on labour market outcomes (by Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend)
  • Report from GEN
  • Research in Progress (Massey University)
  • 2017 NZAE PhD Student Workshop
  • WEAI Conferences, 2018 and beyond
  • New Members

12th A R Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics to Daan Steenkamp

Congratulations to Daan Steenkamp, who was awarded the 2017 A. R. Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics for his paper Daan_Steenkamp_dp17-02. The Bergstrom Prize can be awarded every two years and aims to reward the achievement of excellence in econometrics, as evidenced by a research paper in any area of econometrics.

If an asset price contains a ‘bubble’ it will exhibit explosive (i.e. exponential) dynamics. Recently developed tests by Phillips et al. (2015a) and Phillips et al. (2015b) provide an accurate way to gauge whether asset prices are experiencing explosive dynamics, or have done so in the past.

Daan Steenkamp’s paper applies those tests to eleven of the most commonly traded exchange rates at a daily frequency and over a long sample. When measured at a daily frequency, the volatility of exchange rates tends to be high and potentially non-stationary, and there may be a size distortion in the standard tests causing them to over-reject the null that the series is explosive. For this reason, a wild bootstrapping technique is used to compute critical values for statistical interference.

A second contribution of Daan’s paper is to consider the possibility of both positive and negative explosive periods. Currency pairs provide a natural test case in this regard because explosive increases (or collapses) in a foreign currency imply a corresponding collapse (or increase) in the given base currency. Furthermore, the influence of the base currency on the explosive dynamics may be inferred by considering the dynamics of its effective exchange rate, i.e. that currency’s value against a wide basket of foreign currencies.

The results show that bouts of explosiveness in exchange rates against the United States (US) dollar are uncommon at a daily frequency. Periods of explosiveness tend to last for several days but involve only small changes in currency levels. These also usually reverse shortly afterwards.

Second, the dynamics of the US dollar appear to be largely responsible for the results found for the individual currency pairs, as evidenced by a high concordance of their explosiveness with explosiveness in the broad value of the US dollar exchange rate. This result suggests that there are relatively few instances where explosiveness in individual cross-rates reflected country-specific factors. There is also evidence that explosive episodes in currency markets coincide with periods of high market volatility.

In their assessment, the adjudicators Professors Mark Holmes and Bob Reed noted that Daan’s work was “competent analysis based on cutting edge econometric techniques that provide valuable insights.”

Congratulations to recipients of NZAE prizes in 2017

Congratulations to the following recipients of prizes presented at NZAE Conference 2017. More detail on each prize is available at https://nzae.org.nz/prizes/

David Teece Prize in Industrial Organisation and Firm Behaviour Richard Meade
New Zealand Economic Policy Prize Richard Meade
NZIER Poster prize – open Kate Preston
NZIER Poster prize – student Jianhua Duan
People’s choice poster Kate Preston
Jan Whitwell Doctoral Nazila Alinaghi
Jan Whitwell Bachelors / Masters Cameron Hobbs
Seamus Hogan Research Prize Nazila Alinaghi
Statistics NZ prize Richard Fabling and Arthur Grimes

John Gibson awarded Distinguished Fellow of NZAE

John GibsonNew Zealand’s small size and distance from major markets are often cited as contributing to lower productivity domestically than in other developed countries. This year’s New Zealand Association of Economists Distinguished Fellow demonstrates that low productivity or diminished quality need not be the outcome if one is situated in New Zealand.

NZAE’s Distinguished Fellow award honours distinguished New Zealand economists for their sustained and outstanding contribution to the development of economics and its applications. It is designed to encourage excellence in economics and to promote the profession of economics in New Zealand.

The 2017 Distinguished Fellow is an economist who most definitely meets these requirements and who has been firmly situated in New Zealand for 20 years. Over that time he has been Professor of Economics both at University of Canterbury and University of Waikato.

Professor John Gibson is currently Professor of Economics at the Waikato Management School. A graduate of Lincoln University, John has a doctorate from Stanford University. His teaching and research interests are in microeconomics with special emphasis on the micro-econometric aspects of development and labour economics. He has been a member of an expert group advising the United Nations Statistical Division on the design and analysis of household survey data.

John’s work includes a large number of publications on topics of central importance to New Zealand and Asia-Pacific. These publications have appeared in top ranked journals globally.

His work on Pacific migrants in New Zealand utilising an administratively determined randomised design (together with co-authors David McKenzie and Steven Stillman) is particularly noteworthy both for its quality and for its importance in learning about migration outcomes.

John has published over 100 articles covering both applied and theoretical economics. His work has appeared in journals such as: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Development Economics, Economic Inquiry, Public Choice, World Development, Economic Journal, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of Health Economics, Economics Letters, and Review of Income and Wealth.

He is one of the top four published authors over the first 50 years of New Zealand Economic Papers. Thus he contributes strongly to domestic economic discourse as well as contributing on an international stage.

According to Google Scholar, John has a total of 5,819 citations, and an h-index of 41. Within the RePEc rankings, he is ranked in the top 3 economists resident in New Zealand and in the top 5% of economists globally according to 37 separate metrics.

One example of John’s meticulous and insightful approach to research is his article with David McKenzie and Steven Stillman “How Important Is Selection? Experimental vs. Non-Experimental Measures of the Income Gains from Migration” that appeared in the Journal of the European Economic Association in 2010.

In this paper, John and co-authors use a randomised lottery of Tongans applying to migrate to New Zealand firstly to derive the (very large) income gains that Tongans receive when they migrate to New Zealand and, secondly, to compare this premium with what may be expected from a simple comparison of differences in per capita GDP and manufacturing wages (which implies under-performance for migrant incomes).

These results are extremely informative in their own right. However the study is distinguished by the surveying of an additional group of workers who did not apply to migrate, then using this extra information to consider methods for dealing with selection bias in the econometric estimates. They find that four of five well-known techniques for dealing with selection bias would have given inaccurate estimates of the income gains from migration.

This paper – and many others that John has participated in – shows that as well as producing novel empirical results, he also contributes at a fundamental methodological level in ways that assist other researchers to improve the quality of their own research.

John has made a sustained and outstanding contribution on the world stage to development economics and related aspects of the discipline. He has also played a major role in supervision of, and co-authorship with, graduate students, and in co-authorship with junior colleagues. This contribution to capability development within New Zealand is an important aspect of John’s work.

Across his many contributions, Professor John Gibson has proved that he has the outstanding credentials required for the award of Distinguished Fellow of the New Zealand Association of Economists.

Arthur Grimes
July 2017